October 29. ECB expectedly kept the base rate at zero level

The Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) at its meeting today kept the base interest rate at a record low of 0%, as expected by most experts. The rate has been at this level since March 2016.

The rate on deposits was also kept at the level of -0.5%, while the margin rate remained at the level of 0.25%.

The European regulator said it will keep all rates at or below current levels until inflation in Europe approaches the 2% target.

In addition to the rate, the Central Bank also left unchanged the parameters of the special asset purchase program Pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP). To date, the volume of the program is 1.35 trillion euros, and it will operate at least until the end of June 2021.

November 2. Oil prices fall amid new quarantine measures in Europe

World oil prices fell to $36 a barrel Monday morning on concerns over demand following the announcement of new quarantine restrictions in Europe. However, during the day the asset managed to recover, the current Brent quotation is $37.50.

Experts note that the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus is forcing the authorities of European countries to take additional quarantine measures, which negatively affects expectations for economic recovery and oil demand.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on October 31 stricter quarantine measures from November 5 to December 2. In the region, measures are being introduced that are actually similar to the spring lockdown. Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz on Saturday also announced the start of the second lockdown from November 3. Germany from Monday to the end of November switches to the «soft» lockdown for the second time since the beginning of the pandemic.

At the end of October, another government decree came into force in Italy, providing for new measures to combat coronavirus. In France, President Emmanuel Macron announced the introduction of a nationwide quarantine from October 30.

Analysts note that the quarantine measures announced in the UK and Italy only exacerbate the negative situation in Europe.

November 3. Expert: OPEC+ countries should postpone the softening of the deal from January of the new year

Anne-Louise Hittle, vice president of consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, said at the International Exchange Forum that in order to maintain a stable market situation, OPEC+ countries should extend their current oil production cuts. Previously, the organization intended to soften the terms of the deal from January 2021, implying an increase in production by almost 2 million barrels per day.

The expert stressed that from the point of view of balancing the market in the interests of the producing countries, it is not worth lifting the restrictions in January, although such plans were fixed in the April agreements. Hittle also noted that if restrictions on oil production are lifted from January 1, a very rapid overstocking of the market will occur in the first quarter of the year.

On November 17, the next meeting of the leaders of the OPEC+ countries will take place, at which the organization will have to make the correct decision that meets the current conditions.

Recall that the new OPEC+ agreements started in May with a reduction in oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day for three months. Since August, the alliance has continued to reduce production, but in a smaller volume – by 7.7 million barrels per day for the period until the end of the year, and then – by 5.8 million until the end of April 2022.

November 5. Bank of England expands government bond buyback program to £ 875bn

Today a meeting of the Bank of England was held, following which the regulator kept the base interest rate at 0.1%. It was also decided to increase the volume of the government bond buyback program from 745 billion pounds to 875 billion pounds.

This decision was supported by all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). At the same time, the increase in the volume of purchases turned out to be even higher than the forecasts of analysts, who had expected its growth to 825 billion pounds.

The Bank of England also released an updated quarterly forecast, according to which the UK economy by the end of the year will fall by 11%, rather than 9.5%, as suggested by the August forecast. The regulator stressed that the development of the situation with the coronavirus in the country will affect spending in the short term more than predicted.

Household spending and GDP will start to grow in the first quarter of 2021 amid easing quarantine measures, the Bank of England predicts. At the same time, in January-March of next year, economic activity will be significantly lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Also, the Central Bank expects British GDP growth in 2021 by 7.25% instead of 9% and by 6.25% in 2022 instead of 3.5%.

November 9. OPEC+ deal parameters may be changed more than expected

The head of the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Prince Abdel Aziz bin Salman, at the oil industry conference ADIPEC-2020, said that OPEC+ could adjust the parameters of the deal to reduce oil production even more significantly than analysts believe.

The politician stressed that in conditions of weak demand for oil, the organization can not only keep the production cut at 7.7 million barrels per day (or more), but also extend the deal until the end of 2022.

Recall that the new OPEC+ agreements started in May with a reduction in oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day for three months. Since August, the alliance has continued to reduce production, but to a lesser extent – by 7.7 million barrels per day for the period until the end of the year. Further, it is expected to decrease by 5.8 million barrels per day until the end of April 2022.

November 12. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who filed initial applications for state unemployment benefits last week fell more than expected to 709 thousand. At the same time, the figure remains at a level that raises concerns about a slowdown in the labor market recovery by background of the resumption of coronavirus diseases.

Analysts had expected the number of applications to drop to 735,000. The previous figures were revised to 757 thousand. The number of secondary applications fell to 6.786 million, which is also slightly below the forecast.

Experts note that the number of initial filings is still close to the lowest level since late March, when the first wave of layoffs related to the epidemic hit the US economy. At the same time, the indicator still exceeds the level of applications before the start of the pandemic by more than three times.

The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended October 31 fell by 436 thousand from the revised figure of the previous week to 6.786 million.

November 11. OPEC downgrades forecast for fall in global oil demand in 2020

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2020. Now experts are expecting its reduction by 9.75 million barrels per day to last year's level – up to 90.01 million barrels per day. The previous forecast assumed a decrease in demand in 2020 by 9.47 million barrels per day – to 90.29 million barrels per day.

The outlook was lowered amid rising incidence of Covid-19 in the US and Europe, leading to new restrictive measures.

The forecast for 2021 assumes that demand will grow by 6.25 million barrels per day – up to 96.26 million barrels. Previously, the organization was expecting an increase in demand next year by 6.54 million barrels per day – up to 96.84 million barrels.

OPEC did not provide a forecast for its own oil production in 2020, but noted that in October, production of 13 cartel member countries increased by 0.32 million barrels per day compared to September – to 24.39 million barrels per day. Most of the growth was in Libya, Iraq and Nigeria.

November 16. Asia created the world's largest trading block

Fifteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region on Sunday formed the world's largest free trade bloc without the participation of the United States, but with the support of China. The new alliance was named the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

It is noted that the countries of the new trading bloc account for 30% of world GDP and almost a third of the world's population, and their total market is 2.2 billion consumers. The RWEP brought together the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

The RWEP could strengthen China's position in relations with Southeast Asia, Japan and Korea, as well as provide the world's second largest economy with leverage to shape the rules of trade in the region. In addition, the new partnership will help China reduce its reliance on foreign markets and technology, which is growing due to deteriorating relations with the United States.

November 18. Gold prices drop on news of coronavirus vaccine

Gold price is recovering weakly after a daily decline to $1,866.10 per troy ounce. The current gold quote is $1.883.05.

The pressure on the precious metal is exerted by the news around the coronavirus vaccine. Investors give preference to the acquisition of risky assets, which has a negative impact on the value of gold as a «safe haven asset». Market participants look forward to a return to normal life in the near future and expect further easing of monetary policy in many countries.

It was announced today that the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine has achieved a final 95% efficacy, and Pfizer will submit it for regulatory approval in the United States in the coming days.

At the same time, the American company Moderna said that the results of the third phase of trials of the coronavirus vaccine showed its effectiveness at 94.5%.

November 23. Experts predict Europe «long years of pain»

Analyzing the current state of affairs in Europe, experts note that the growth of corporate debts risks turning the region into long «years of pandemic pain».

Analysts are confident that after the crisis support from the state ends, there will be a risk of a wave of defaults and bankruptcies, which will hit the banking sector and further exacerbate the economic downturn.

Debt burden can hinder investment and job creation for years to come. In the first half of this year, eurozone companies borrowed more than 400 billion euros, compared with 289 billion euros for the whole of 2019.

The European Commission has warned that debt servicing could be challenging, especially in the sectors hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Experts note that paying off the debt accumulated during the pandemic is the second largest problem for business.

November 25. US jobless claims unexpectedly rose over the week

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended November 21, increased by 30 thousand compared with the revised figure of the previous week to 778 thousand applications.

Analysts had expected a decline of 12 thousand applications from the initial figure last week – to 730 thousand. The initial figure of the previous week was revised to 748 thousand from 742 thousand.

The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 299 thousand from the revised figure of the previous week to 6.071 million.

November 30. US exchanges are falling as part of the correction after a prolonged rise

Major US stock indices are declining on Monday in a correction, while remaining on track for their highest monthly gain since April.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.93% to 29,633.02 points, the NASDAQ high-tech companies index – 0.05%, to 12,205.85 points, the S&P 500 broad market index – 0.59%, to 3,616.91 pips.

The main factor influencing investor sentiment was news about vaccines. Since early November, Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca have reported successful trials of their vaccine samples with high efficacy. In addition, the positive dynamics in the US markets in November was also caused by a decrease in political uncertainty after the presidential elections.

December 02. Visa will issue the world's first cashback credit card in bitcoins

Visa is partnering with cryptocurrency startup BlockFi to release the world's first cashback credit card in bitcoins. The card will be issued by Evolve Bank with the assistance of credit card startup Deserve.

1.5% will be returned from each card transaction. Cashback will be accumulated, then automatically converted into bitcoins and credited to your BlockFi account.

In addition to the credit limit with a specific interest-free period, BlockFi will give customers a welcome bonus of $250 in bitcoins if the amount spent on the card exceeds $3000 in the first three months.

The card will be metallic, similar to the Apple card that the company has jointly released with Goldman Sachs. Annual maintenance for a new VISA credit card will cost $200. The card will initially only be available in the US.

December 04. Crude Oil rises to eight-month high as OPEC + deal

Brent oil prices jumped to $49.86 per barrel after the announcement of the results of the OPEC + meeting. Thus, the asset has renewed its maximum for the last eight months.

The organization has decided to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day starting in January in response to rising prices and improved demand forecasts for 2021. The demand for hydrocarbons is expected to recover quickly thanks to progress in the development of a vaccine against COVID-19.

However, this is only a quarter of the 2 million bpd increase the group originally expected in January.

An additional stimulus for growth is the fact that OPEC keeps its plans regarding the need to further restrict oil production unchanged.

December 08. UK starts vaccination, US buys vaccines

December 8 could be a historic day in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic as the United Kingdom officially began vaccination today. The UK uses a vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech and has reportedly purchased 40 million doses. Pfizer said it could produce 50 million doses this month; production volume in 2021 is not yet clear.

Donald Trump's government purchased 100 million doses of Pfizer's vaccine in advance (enough to vaccinate 50 million people, since each person needs two doses every few weeks). Pfizer then offered a contract for the supply of more vaccines, which Trump refused.

The current agreement between the US government and Pfizer allows for the purchase of up to 500 million doses in the second half of 2021. However, this number is optional. As other countries place their own vaccine orders and Pfizer has a production logistics scheme, the US may not be able to purchase another 500 million doses, even if it wants to.

The question of when and how Americans will be vaccinated is critical, as the country has reached a record 102,000 hospitalizations and the highest weekly death rate. The United States has recorded over 15.3 million cases (200,000 new just yesterday) and over 290,000 Covid-19-related deaths.

The situation with coronaviruses in Europe is starting to stabilize thanks to November lockdowns. France, Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany are seeing significant declines in the number of Covid-19 cases. Russia is currently the largest coronavirus hotspot outside the US, outperforming even India in its daily statistics.

December 09. Brexit talks and coronavirus vaccinations

The term of negotiations between the UK and the European Union is coming to an end, but the countries have not yet reached a new trade agreement. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to Brussels today to have a business dinner with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and try to find common ground.

Meanwhile, the first alarming news of the effects of the coronavirus vaccine has arrived. Pfizer-BioNTech has begun to vaccinate UK citizens this week, and a couple of mild allergic reactions have already been reported. British health authorities are now reporting that allergy sufferers should refrain from vaccinations.

In addition, a third vaccine from the Chinese pharmaceutical company Sinopharm has appeared, which claims to be highly effective (86%), which is confirmed by data from the UAE. The development of additional vaccines is likely to be an important step in the fight against coronavirus.

As a reminder, the US and the European Union have already reserved drugs produced and planned for production in the coming months by Pfizer and Moderna. Thus, the rest of the companies that developed vaccines will meet the needs of other countries.

December 10.2020 - USA, coronavirus and latest economic reports

In the US, the November inflation report was published, which beat the forecast at 0.2%, as well as weekly data on jobless claims, which disappointed investors. The labor market situation in the United States is deteriorating due to the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak.

By the end of the week, 70 million people infected with coronavirus will be registered in the world. In the United States, there are more than 15.8 million patients, of whom more than 296,000 have died. The number of hospitalizations in the country has reached the highest ever.

In the EU, the number of new cases is gradually decreasing. A notable exception is Germany, which despite the lockdown, where more than 20,000 new cases of Covid-19 are detected daily. Brazil, India and Russia also continue to be hit hard by the virus.

Meeting of the European Council: 2021 budget

The last meeting of the European Council in 2020 began yesterday. The main topic of discussion is the budget for the next year. At the end of the meeting, it became known how the European Union will spend the money and whether it will be able to allocate enough funds for the Recovery Fund - a special section of the budget dedicated to combating the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.

Poland and Hungary have previously questioned the future of the Recovery Fund. The two most right-wing EU countries had a problem with a provision in the funding bill that linked raising funds with respect for the rule of law. Both Poland and Hungary have come under criticism from the EU in recent years for problems in the judicial system, as well as freedom of speech and press. Fearing that this policy would leave them without EU incentives, Poland and Hungary said they would veto the bill.

However, other EU countries have forced these countries to pass a bill and budget plan totaling 1.8 trillion euros. The compromise was due to the clarification that respect for the rule of law would not be retroactive. In other words, Poland and Hungary (or any other EU member state violating this principle) can only be punished for future offenses, and not for what they have already done.

The EU Council summit disappointed anyone hoping for news of Brexit. The question that the transition period ends in less than three weeks is not on the agenda. The UK and the EU are still in talks, Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen said earlier that they have until Sunday to find a compromise. The EU has already developed guidelines for the negative scenario.

December 15. Industrial production in the US in November grew better than forecast

According to the report of the US Federal Reserve System, industrial production in November increased by 0.4% versus the previous month, when the indicator was noted at the level of 0.9%.

At the same time, the volume of production is still 5% below the pre-crisis level. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting an increase of 0.3%.

In annual terms, industrial production in November fell by 5.5%, and in October – by 5%.

Manufacturing production in November increased for the seventh month in a row – by 0.8% versus October. The forecasts assumed an increase in the indicator by 0.3%. In the mining industry, production increased by 2.3%, electricity generation decreased by 4.3%.

Capacity utilization in the US increased to 73.3% in November from 73% a month earlier. Analysts on average predicted a decline to 72.9%.

December 16. Bitcoin price has updated a new all-time high

The value of the most popular cryptocurrency, bitcoin, grows on Wednesday evening, exceeding the maximum level of December 2017 ($ 20,042) and updating a new all-time high at $ 20,535.

Bitcoin, like other cryptocurrencies, has risen sharply since October. Digital currencies are rising in value amid optimism in global markets and expectations that the Covid-19 pandemic will be brought under control thanks to the emergence of vaccines against coronavirus infection.

Additional support for Bitcoin is provided by a sharp weakening of the US dollar in the world market.

December 17. Bank of England has kept the rate unchanged

The Bank of England at its meeting on Thursday kept its base interest rate at 0.1%, in line with analysts' expectations.

Moreover, the regulator has kept the volume of asset repurchases from the market at 895 billion pounds. The redemption of government bonds at the same time is 875 billion pounds, and the volume of redemption of corporate bonds remained at 20 billion pounds.

The Bank of England continues to monitor the situation around Brexit. London and Brussels are still trying to avoid a shock scenario with the introduction of import duties on January 1. Therefore, keeping the program for buying up government debt securities at the same level should provide the regulator with sufficient «firepower» until the end of 2021.

December 18. Brent and WTI: What to Expect from the Oil Market?

Global oil prices are moderately lower on Friday as investors continue to assess the outlook for demand amid news of vaccinations in many countries.

The price of Brent crude oil dropped today to $ 51.17 per barrel, while the price of WTI oil - to $ 48.15. Note that the quotes moved down after four days of growth.

However, despite the optimism associated with the start of vaccination against coronavirus, the epidemiological situation in the world leaves much to be desired. Against this background, an increasing number of countries are introducing additional quarantine measures, which puts pressure on demand. We can say that the news about vaccines is too overestimated, which does not exclude the possibility of an imminent correction in prices from the highs. Recall that Brent quotes reached $ 51.80 at the moment, which was the maximum since mid-February of this year. WTI climbed to $ 48.60 per barrel, which also became its highest value in 10 months.

Additional risks to oil risk are posed by divisions within OPEC + as every exporter would like to take advantage of higher hydrocarbon prices. Do not forget that the organization has decided to increase oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day from January 1, 2021.

December 23. Great Britain is on the verge of a trade blockade

UK industrialists fear that the country could face the threat of a food crisis. In particular, the country is facing an impending shortage of fruits and vegetables, and shoppers are lining up at supermarkets in London.

The fact is that due to the mutating coronavirus, a number of European countries have suspended transport links with Great Britain. And now, with food supply chains disrupted, London is on the verge of a trade blockade. Analysts note that the volume of supplies from the European Union amounted to a quarter of the total volume of the previous year.

In addition, port disruptions mean that British meat and fish exporters are unable to ship their goods to Europe. As it is known, the European Union is highly dependent on supplies from Britain. For example, in France there may not be enough fish for Christmas due to blocking of cargo.

December 24. US stock exchanges are growing on expectations of state support

Major US stock indexes on Thursday are growing moderately on expectations of market participants for additional measures of economic support in the US. At the same time, the trading volume today is not large, since most exchanges today close earlier than usual in connection with the celebration of Catholic Christmas. Tomorrow is a day off in the USA and Europe.

In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grew by 0.13%, to 30169.5 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index – by 0.41%, to 12822.01 points, the broad market S&P 500 index – by 0.26% , up to 3699.5 points.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump refused to sign the $ 900 billion package of economic assistance adopted by Congress on the eve of Congress, demanding a revision in order to increase payments to the population from $600 to $2,000 per person.

At the same time, markets are watching with concern the news of the mutation of the coronavirus in the UK, as fears about new serious restrictive measures are growing against this background. And this, in turn, can exert strong pressure on economic activity in Europe and the world.

December 25. What awaits the oil market in 2021?

The outgoing year will be remembered for numerous anti-records: a fall in demand by 25%, overcrowding of oil storage facilities and a drop in prices for the first time in history. The reason for such events was the coronavirus pandemic in the world, which led to an unprecedented drop in oil prices: Brent collapsed to the level of $15 per barrel, and for the first time in history, WTI completely went into negative territory, reaching minus $40 (suppliers paid extra to buyers for oil export).

However, experts believe that next year will be more successful for «black gold», and the price of a Brent barrel will remain in the region of $45-55 per barrel. By the end of 2020, OPEC's coordinated efforts to balance the oil market, as well as news of the successful testing of vaccines against COVID-19, helped the oil rise to $50 per barrel.

The demand for oil products in the outgoing year is gradually approaching 97-99% of 2019, but air traffic has not yet been restored. Moreover, the new mutation Covid casts doubt on the imminent opening of borders. At the same time, the world economy continues to grow, which was facilitated by the stimulating programs of central banks. In such conditions, an optimistic scenario for further dynamics of the oil market is still more likely, experts say.

It should be added that the negative effect on demand from the pandemic will come to naught by the end of the first half of 2021, and the OPEC+ deal will remain in one form or another. However, in the unlikely scenario of canceling the agreement to cut oil production, the price of «black gold» may fall to the range of $35-45 per barrel. But, again, this is extremely unlikely.