August 20. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States exceeded 1 million

The number of initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly to 1.106 million, according to the US Labor Department, fueling fears that the recovery in America's labor market could be delayed. Experts predicted a decrease in the number of applications to 925 thousand.

The number of Americans who submitted secondary claims for benefits fell to 14.844 million. The total number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 200 thousand, to 28.06 million.

The US authorities note that since the labor market is still weak, additional financial assistance will be required in the near future to support vulnerable families and the economy as a whole.

September 01. German authorities have improved economic forecast for 2020

The German authorities have improved their forecast for the outlook for the economy in 2020 amid signs of effectiveness in efforts to support and stimulate Europe's largest economy.

The German central bank expects the country's GDP to contract by 5.8% this year, while back in April it was predicted that the economy would contract by 6.3%. At the same time, the new forecast still does not rule out the onset of one of the most significant economic recessions since the end of World War II.

Meanwhile, the forecast for next year was downgraded. Experts expect that the German economy in 2021 will grow by only 4.4%, while the previous forecast assumed growth of 5.2%. Also, the Ministry of Economy of the country notes that Germany, most likely, will not be able to achieve pre-crisis GDP indicators until early 2022.

September 03. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell more than expected

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell from the revised figure of the previous week by 130 thousand - to 881 thousand.

Analysts predicted a decline in the indicator by 56 thousand applications. The figure has dropped below 1 million for the second time since March saw a sharp increase in the number of applications.

The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States decreased by 1.238 million from the revised figure of the previous week to 13.254 million.

September 07. Johnson calls Brexit deadline

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that a Brexit trade deal with the European Union should be concluded by October 15.  The politician noted that if the parties fail to reach an agreement by this time, then the free trade deal will most likely not be concluded at all.

According to Johnson, if the negotiations are unsuccessful, the UK will have a relationship with the EU similar to that of the EU and Australia, which is also a good result. In this case, Britain will have full control over its laws and regulations, as well as the conditions for the use of British fishing waters.

The Prime Minister also stressed that Britain is ready to find a reasonable agreement with the EU on practical issues, including flights, freight transport or scientific cooperation, even if a trade deal is not reached.

The post-Brexit transition period began for the UK on January 31, 2020 and will last until December 31, 2020. During this year, the EU and Britain should reconcile their future relationship. The next stage of negotiations is scheduled for tomorrow, September 8th.

September 08. US ready to hit China's economy again

The US has said it is considering a ban on Chinese cotton products from Xinjiang. The US cited alleged human rights violations in Xinjiang as the reason for this move.

Moreover, D. Trump noted that if he is re-elected in the presidential elections, he will end his dependence on the Chinese economy. In his statement, the president stressed that he «intends to turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower, independent of China.»

According to the head of the White House, the US authorities will be able to return jobs from China, and companies that want to leave America will be required to pay large sums. Trump also said that today the United States is losing billions of dollars in the course of economic cooperation with China.

September 09. In July, the number of vacancies in the United States increased to 6.62 million

Job vacancies in the US increased in July, with more workers leaving retail and professional and business services jobs due to concerns about COVID-19 infection and childcare concerns, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor (JOLTS).

The number of vacancies, which is an indicator of labor demand, jumped from 6 million to 6.62 million on the last day of July, the highest since May.

The JOLTS report follows last Friday's news that the US economy created 1.371 million jobs in August, after increasing 1.734 million in July.

September 14. OPEC downgrades forecast for global oil demand for 2020-2021

According to the September OPEC report, the organization downgraded the forecast for world oil demand for 2020 and 2021 by 0.4 million barrels per day. OPEC now expects a drop in demand by 9.5 million barrels per day this year and an increase of 6.6 million barrels next year. In 2020, demand is expected at 90.2 million barrels per day, and in 2021 – at 96.9 million.

The deterioration is mainly due to a decrease in the level of economic activity in several countries of the Asia-Pacific region due to an increase in the number of cases of infection with Covid-19. Oil demand in India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines in the second quarter was much lower than initially expected. At the same time, the demand for oil in China in the second quarter exceeded expectations.

The organization notes that forecasts for demand may be lowered again due to the risks of a second wave of coronavirus in the world and the difficulties associated with vaccination. Moreover, the restrictions due to the pandemic and the operation of many businesses remotely could prevent the transport sector from fully recovering to pre-crisis levels next year.

September 16. Annual inflation in the UK in August was 0.2%

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), inflation in Great Britain in August in annual terms slowed down to 0.2% from 1% in July. This is the lowest since December 2015.

On a monthly basis, deflation was recorded at 0.4%. Analysts predicted annual inflation of 0.1%, and on a monthly basis – deflation of 0.6%.

The CPIH index (inflation taking into account the costs of homeowners for the maintenance of housing) for the reporting month amounted to 0.5% in annual terms against 1.1% a month earlier. On a monthly basis, prices decreased by 0.3%, while in June their growth was 0.4%.

Core inflation (CPI Core), excluding food, alcohol, tobacco and energy, rose 0.9% on an annualized basis in August after rising 1.8% a month earlier. The experts forecast an increase of 0.6%.

September 17. The World Bank gave dates of the global economy recovery

World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart, speaking at the Trends 2021 online forum, said that the global economy will not recover from the coronavirus crisis until 2025.

Therein, in some countries the recession will last longer than in others. In particular, poor countries will be much more affected by the crisis, which could lead to an increase in the level of extreme poverty in the world from 8% to 9%.

In a June World Bank report, experts predicted the worst recession since World War II. According to them, the decline in the global economy in 2020 will be 5.2%.

September 21. UK thinks about canceling Tax Free shopping system

The British authorities announced that they are considering the possibility of canceling the Tax Free system from December 31 of this year, explaining this decision by too large budget losses in case of a tax refund after purchases.

Such a plan by the authorities drew sharp criticism from the tourist industry. The fact is that canceling the Tax Free system for foreign visitors could cost the UK billions of pounds in lost profits. In addition, 70,000 jobs will be at risk.

Tourists from non-EU countries make purchases in the UK annually in the amount of £3.5 billion. In case of refusal to refund VAT, Britain will become the only country without Tax Free, which may lead to the fact that tourists prefer shopping in other cities and countries.

At the moment, a Tax Free deduction can be obtained for purchases worth 30 pounds, the amount of VAT is 20%. It is noted that items purchased in this manner should not be used in the UK.

September 22. UK signaled new quarantine

On Tuesday, the UK said it intends to abandon the return of people to their usual jobs in an attempt to contain the rapidly growing second wave of Covid-19 in the country.

In addition to imposing curfews for pubs and restaurants, Prime Minister Boris Johnson called on the population to switch to remote work. Such statements may indicate that the country is moving towards expanding the tough social distancing measures introduced in the spring.

On the news, stocks in UK travel and leisure companies began to decline before they bounced back from the crisis (Ryanair, International Airlines Group and Air France). KLM shares plunged 4-5%, while shares in aerospace suppliers Meggitt, Senior and Rolls-Royce tumbled for the last to hit another new low for the year.

The British company Whitbread, which operates a chain of hotels and restaurants, announced today plans to cut 18% of its staff, or about 6 thousand jobs. The company's shares fell 3.5%, having lost more than half of their value this year.

September 23. US Department of Energy Oil Inventory Report

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, the volume of commercial crude oil in storage in the United States (excluding strategic reserves) for the week ended September 18, decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 494.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in oil reserves by 4.0 million barrels.

US gasoline stocks decreased by 4.0 million barrels. and amounted to 227.5 million barrels. Experts expected a 1.9 million barrels of gasoline reserves to be cut. Distillate stocks (including diesel fuel and heating oil) decreased by 3.4 mln barrels. and amounted to 175.9 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase in distillate stocks by 1.2 million barrels.

Oil reserves in the US Strategic Reserve (SPR) decreased by 0.8 million barrels. and amounted to 645.0 million barrels.

Cushing's commercial crude oil reserves remained unchanged at 54.3 mmbbl.

Earlier, the API Institute reported that commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 0.7 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories decreased by 7.7 million barrels, distillate reserves decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and oil reserves in the Cushing storage facility increased by 0.3 million barrels.

September 24. Oil prices drop due to economic uncertainty and coronavirus

Oil prices fell on Thursday amid uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and the situation with the coronavirus. The current quotation of Brent is $41.50 per barrel, WTI is $39.75.

Market participants are awaiting further action by the authorities of some countries amid an increase in new cases of coronavirus infection. Investors are concerned about the outlook for the global economy and oil demand amid the likelihood of re-imposing restrictions by some countries.

Additional pressure on oil prices was exerted by statements by the Iraqi oil minister that the country was counting on an agreement with OPEC + to increase oil exports. A week earlier, the minister said that Iraq had developed a plan to compensate for its overproduction of oil by the end of 2020 as part of the OPEC + deal.

September 28. Swiss GDP declines at record 40 years

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) of Switzerland, the country's GDP fell by 7.3% in the second quarter of this year. Such a decrease was recorded for the first time since 1980 – since the first calculation of quarterly indicators.

The indicator was revised downward, from -8.2%.

The department also clarifies that in the second quarter, aggregate demand decreased. Personal consumption has plummeted 8.1% due to the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it. In addition, the export of goods decreased – by 6.5%, the export of services fell by 15.3%.

September 30. Oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly decreased by 0.4% over the week

According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the country (excluding the strategic reserve) decreased by 2 million barrels, or 0.4%, and reached 492.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted an increase in reserves by 1.6 million, to 495.9 million barrels.

Oil production in the United States for the week averaged 10.7 million barrels per day, as in the previous week. On average, over the past four weeks, oil production in the United States amounted to 10.575 million barrels per day.

Recall that in early September, the US Department of Energy increased the forecast for the average oil production in the country for the current year by 120 thousand barrels per day, to 11.38 million (compared with the August estimate), and reduced for 2021 – by 60 thousand barrels, to 11.08 million barrels per day.

October 01. US industrial PMI declines unexpectedly

According to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US Manufacturing Index (ISM Manufacturing) fell to 55.4% in September from 56% in August. Analysts had expected the indicator to rise to 56.4%.

In addition, the US service sector employment index rose to 49.6% in September from 46.4% in August. Experts had expected a decline to 45.8%.

October 5. US services PMI gains better than forecast

According to the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the index of business activity in the US services sector in September rose to 57.8%. The indicator for August was noted at 56.9%. Analysts had forecast a decline to 56.3%.

The employment index in the country's services sector in September rose to 51.8% from 47.9% in August.

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for services, calculated by IHS Markit and also released today, dropped to 54.6 points in September, up from 55 points in August.

Business activity in the US services sector continues to climb for the fourth straight month amid a gradual recovery from the coronavirus crisis. The service sector accounts for almost 90% of US GDP and about 80% of the country's working citizens.

October 06. The EU is ready to resort to new measures of economic stimulus

The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said during her speech that the regulator is ready to resort to new monetary stimulus measures, including lowering the key interest rate even below zero, to help the recovery of the Euro zone economy.

Lagarde also noted that with the second wave of coronavirus in France and Spain, the prospects for restoring activity in the region look «a little more unstable.» The head of the ECB believes that the eurozone's GDP will not return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2022, so it is necessary to continue stimulating.

So far, the ECB has refrained from further cutting rates, although it announced a new stimulus program worth about 3 trillion euros. The key rate for today is 0.0%.

Representatives of the banking sector have repeatedly stated that negative rates of the ECB negatively affect profits. Analysts believe that the rate cut will lead to a weakening of the euro, which has strengthened against the US dollar in recent months. And this, in turn, will reduce the concerns of the regulator about the high rate of the euro, which negatively affects large exporters and inflation.

October 07. Futures on US indices are growing in anticipation of the Fed meeting minutes

Futures on major US stock indexes started to rise on Wednesday after a sharp drop a day earlier after President Donald Trump announced that he would stop negotiations on supporting the economy. Further trading dynamics will depend on the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal reserve system this evening.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.82% to 27928 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index rose 0.88% to 11373.88 points, and the S&P 500 broad-market index futures rose 0.83% to 3380.88 points.

Investors are awaiting the release of minutes from the Fed's September meeting, in which they think to find details of further prospects for the recovery of the American economy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

Yesterday's decline was caused by US President Donald Trump's announcement to end negotiations with Democrats in the house of representatives on stimulating the economy before the November presidential election. The reason was a disagreement over the amount of stimulus: house speaker Nancy Pelosi is demanding $2.4 trillion, and the White house administration is ready to give no more than $1.6 trillion.

October 08. U.S. unemployment shrinks amid slow growth in new jobs

According to the US Department of Labor, last week the number of Americans who filed initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to a minimum since the start of the pandemic – to 840 thousand people. At the same time, the number of applications for benefits remains at a level indicating a slowdown in the recovery of the labor market, as the virus epidemic has dragged on. Economists predicted a stronger decline – to 820 thousand people.

The number of secondary applications fell to 10.576 million, more than 1 million in a week.

The total number of people who have applied for all forms of unemployment benefits fell by just over 1 million to 25.505 million.

The ministry's report emphasizes that there is an urgent need for additional fiscal stimulus to help the economy recover from the recession caused by the epidemic. In September, only 661,000 jobs were created in the United States, the smallest increase since the start of the labor market recovery in May. In August, the increase amounted to 1.489 million.

October 12. Saudi Arabia will host the largest banking deal of the year

National Commercial Bank (NCB), the largest Bank in Saudi Arabia by assets, announced the purchase of rival Samba Financial Group for $15 billion. This deal will be the largest in the banking sector since the beginning of 2020. It is expected to be closed in the first half of 2021.

The combined Bank with assets of more than $220 billion will be the third in this indicator among financial institutions of the Gulf countries, its capitalization will exceed $46 billion.

NCB will pay 28.45 Saudi riyals ($7.58) per Samba share, which values the entire Bank at 55.7 billion riyals. The deal will be paid for with NCB shares. As a result, NCB shareholders will own 67.4% of the combined Bank, while Samba shareholders will own 32.6%. The national welfare Fund of Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund (PIF), which is the largest shareholder of both banks, will own 37.2% of the combined financial institution.

The Saudi authorities continue to act in accordance with the plan to diversify the country's economy and reduce its dependence on the oil sector.

October 15. Germany introduces additional measures to combat Covid-19

German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to introduce additional measures in the country to combat the spread of COVID-19. At the same time, most of the new restrictions do not apply to the entire territory of Germany, but only to those parts where the number of cases of coronavirus will actively grow and reach 35 or 50 people per 100 thousand inhabitants.

If 35 people per 100 thousand get sick, then citizens will have to wear masks in crowded places. In regions with an incidence of 50 people per 100 thousand inhabitants, a ban on the work of bars and restaurants after 23:00 will be introduced. The number of people at private parties will be reduced to 10.

Merkel noted that if these measures do not help to reduce the number of infections, new tough restrictions will be introduced. According to her, Germany has come to a «decisive and critical phase», when the growth of new cases of the disease has already begun.

October 19. US exchanges are growing on expectations of economic stimulus

Major US stock indexes rallied on Monday in anticipation of news on a new US fiscal aid package and the upcoming November 3 presidential election.

Thus, the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 0.3%, to 28690.91 points, the NASDAQ high-tech companies index – by 0.72%, to 11755.51 points, the S&P 500 broad market index – by 0.49%, to 3501.02 points.

Markets remain focused on expectations for a new stimulus package for the US economy. The Republican administration of D. Trump supports a package of measures worth $1.8 trillion, but Democrats, led by Joe Biden, insist on $2.2 trillion. 

Over the weekend, it became known that the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi made it clear that the agreement on US fiscal stimulus could be concluded from day to day, until the presidential election.

October 21. EU intends to prepare a response to possible US sanctions

German Foreign Ministry spokesman Christopher Burger said that the European Commission intends to consider ideas on measures to respond to economic sanctions by the United States by the end of the year.

The proposals imply the formation of an EU export bank up to the creation of a digital euro. This will allow the EU to be independent from the US financial system.

Moreover, the «pan-European instrument» should enable the European Union to respond to sanctions with retaliatory sanctions as a last resort. Also among the discussed measures – restrictions on the import of mobile phones from China.

October 23. US exchanges are trading in positive territory on forecasts for state aid

According to the trading data, the main US stock indexes on Friday are mainly growing against the background of how investors assess the prospects for a new package of support for the US economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0.13% to 28399.19 points, the NASDAQ high tech index fell 0.13% to 11,490.58 points, the broad market S&P 500 index rose 0.27%. up to 3462.8 points.

Investors also continue to monitor the situation around the presidential elections in the United States, which will be held on November 3. The final debate between Republican candidate Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump ended yesterday. According to the poll, Biden won the final debate.

Internal statistics had an additional impact on the US stock market. Composite index of business activity (PMI) in October, according to preliminary estimates, rose to 55.5 points from 54.3 points in September. The PMI index in the services sector increased over the reporting month to 56 points against the September estimate of 54.6 points. Analysts expected the indicator to remain at the same level. At the same time, the PMI in the industry rose to 53.3 points from 53.2 points, growth was expected to 53.4 points.

October 27.  US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined in October

According to analyst firm Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in the US in October fell to 100.9 points from the revised index of 101.3 points in September. Analysts had forecast an increase in the index to 102 points from the original September value of 101.8 points.

The release noted that consumer confidence eased slightly in October after a sharp improvement in September. And now, there are few factors that could contribute to the economic recovery in the final months of 2020 (especially with the growth in the number of coronavirus infections in the United States and high unemployment).

The index of economic expectations in the United States in October fell to 98.4 points from the revised September index of 102.9 points. The initial figure for the previous month was 104 points.

The index of economic conditions in the reporting month rose to 104.6 points from the revised September value of 98.9 points. The original figure last month was 98.5 points.

October 28. Bank of Canada has kept the rate at the same level of 0.25%

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday kept its key interest rate at a record low of 0.25%. Earlier, the head of the Canadian Central Bank, Tiff Maclem, said that the rate would remain unchanged for at least two years amid a slow economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic.

Representatives of the regulator also noted that in the next two years, the country's economy will experience excess supply, which will lead to keeping inflation below the target level (2%) until 2022. Also, the central bank stressed that the recovery process of the Canadian economy will be long and uneven.

The Bank also raised its growth forecast for the third quarter to 47.5% on an annualized basis. He also predicts stronger annual growth in 2020, although he lowered his forecast for 2021.