Oil continues to fall: weak demand and strengthening of the US dollar

Oil continues its rapid decline, experiencing the most serious drop in two weeks. Weak demand in China, a strong US dollar and fears of oversupply are putting negative pressure on prices.

Brent futures fell almost 3% on Monday and are trading below $72 per barrel. WTI prices also fell to $67.78, losing about 0.37%.

China's recent efforts to stimulate the economy have not met investors' expectations, and inflation in the country remains low. At the same time, the US dollar index has reached new multi-month highs, which makes oil more expensive for most buyers.

The oil market has been in a relatively narrow range since the middle of last month, but now the outlook remains weak. Oil supply is expected to exceed demand next year. OPEC's monthly market report, expected later on Tuesday, may shed light on the prospects for market balance.

Experts note that significant factors are needed to change the negative trend in the oil market, such as the postponement of the return of OPEC+ oil production or the imposition of US sanctions against Iran.
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Economic expectations in Germany are falling amid the US elections

November brought negative news for investor and analyst sentiment in both Germany and the eurozone. The data from the economic expectations index clearly show a decline in optimism.

The German index fell to a modest 7.4 points from 13.1 points in October. This sharp decline, significantly exceeding the projected 13 points, is primarily due to unstable political events both inside and outside Germany.

Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election has caused a noticeable negative impact on economic expectations. While the economic recovery is growing in the United States, the situation in the eurozone and China, on the contrary, is deteriorating.

In parallel with the drop in the expectations index, the assessment of the current economic situation also decreased to -91.4 points, reaching the lowest level since May 2020. 

The situation in the eurozone is not much better: the index of economic expectations fell to 12.5 points from 20.1 points, not meeting forecasts for growth to 20.5 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in the eurozone also decreased by 3 points, reaching -43.8.
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China has prepared countermeasures in case of increased trade competition with the United States

China has prepared effective countermeasures in case the trade standoff with the United States intensifies under the leadership of new President Donald Trump.

During Trump's first term, Beijing was not prepared for Washington's tough moves, including the imposition of increased tariffs and tighter controls on Chinese investments. However, over the past eight years, China has significantly strengthened its position by passing laws that allow foreign companies to be blacklisted and restrict U.S. access to critical supply chains.

Today, Beijing has legislative tools to counter sanctions imposed by other countries, and has compiled a «list of unreliable organizations» that undermine China's national interests. In addition, the expanded law on the control of exports of dual-use goods allows China to use its dominant position in global markets for the supply of key resources as an instrument of pressure.

A number of analysts believe that many underestimate the possible damage that China can cause to the US economy. An example is the recent ban on the supply of components for the largest American drone manufacturer Skydio, which supplies equipment for Ukraine as well. These sanctions make it difficult to access critical components needed for production.

After winning the election, Donald Trump should succeed Joe Biden in January 2025. In his election campaign, he promised to abolish the most-favored-nation status in trade with China, which will allow any tariffs to be imposed, and also announced his intention to "divide" Russia and China in order to weaken their strategic alliance.
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Why the US Dollar Will Continue to Strengthen

Yesterday, the euro and pound quickly lost ground against the US dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed traders' concerns by stating that recent data provides the central bank with room to lower interest rates cautiously.

"The economy is not signaling any need for us to rush into rate cuts," Powell said on Thursday in Dallas. "The current state of the economy allows us to approach our decisions cautiously."

The Fed began lowering borrowing costs in September with an aggressive half-point cut, followed by a quarter-point reduction last week. The Fed indicated readiness to continue lowering rates if inflation remains subdued. However, Powell's remarks align with several colleagues who advocate for a more gradual approach to future rate cuts.

Powell's comments have tempered market expectations for a December rate cut. Policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yields rose by eight basis points to 4.36%, while swap traders reduced the odds of a December rate cut to less than 55%, down from about 88% the day before.

Powell also addressed recent data, noting that inflation remains on a bumpy path: "The economy shows no urgency for rate cuts, as inflation demonstrates some signs of picking up," Powell stated on Thursday. He added that uncertainty about the neutral rate—where policy neither stimulates nor restrains growth—warrants caution. This week, several Fed officials highlighted the importance of defining the new neutral rate as a key factor in shaping future policy.

"We should be cautious in this environment," Powell said. "As the central bank approaches the plausible range of neutral levels, it may be the case that we slow the pace of what we're doing."

As I noted above, recent data showed that headline inflation in October remained unchanged, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy costs, rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month. "Inflation is approaching our long-term 2% target, but it hasn't reached it yet," Powell said. "We are committed to finishing the job. With labor-market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored. I expect inflation to continue its descent toward 2%, albeit on a bumpy trajectory."

Powell refrained from commenting on the likelihood of a December cut.

Monetary policy could face new headwinds following President-elect Donald Trump's potential tax cuts, immigration restrictions, and tariffs. Political uncertainty may further reinforce the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts.

The US dollar has gained significant strength over the past two weeks and now dominates the forex market.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers need to reclaim the 1.0580 level to target a test of 1.0615. A move beyond this level could lead to 1.0655, although such progress will require support from major market players. The most distant target is 1.0690. If the trading instrument declines in 1.0540, I expect major buyers to take action; failing that, it would be good to wait for the 1.0495 low to be updated or to open long positions from 1.0460.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.2680 to aim for 1.2725, above which breaking through will be quite problematic. The furthest target will be 1.2760, followed by a potential sharp rally to 1.2796. Bears will aim to regain control of the 1.2630 area if the pair declines. A breakdown here would deal a significant blow to bullish positions, pushing GBP/USD toward 1.2585, with a further target at 1.2550.
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Electricity prices in Germany have soared to record levels

In Germany, electricity prices have peaked in the last 12 months. The driver of growth was the upcoming cold snap and a decrease in the production of renewable energy sources.

Futures for next month in Europe's largest economy rose 4.4%, reaching their highest value since October last year.

Despite a relatively mild autumn, a colder winter is expected in most of the continent, which will lead to increased demand for electricity and natural gas. Weather forecasts point to lower temperatures in the coming days, especially in Berlin, where temperatures are expected to drop to 1°C.

A decrease in the projected wind energy production in Germany for most of this week also has a negative impact on the market.

The cold weather also encourages utilities to consume more natural gas from storage facilities, which contributes to higher fuel prices. Uncertainty about supplies from Russia adds even more risks to the market.

As a result, the price of electricity in Germany for the next month increased to €108 per MWh, and in France – to €101.5.
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ECB: AI bubble threatens financial stability

The European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed alarm about a possible bubble in the stock market related to artificial intelligence (AI). 

In its semi-annual financial stability review, the ECB noted that the stock market, especially in the United States, is increasingly dependent on several companies considered leaders in the field of AI. This concentration raises concerns about the possibility of an AI asset bubble. Investors demand a low premium for owning stocks and bonds, and funds have reduced their cash reserves, which can cause a shortage of cash and forced asset sales.

The central bank warned that if investors' expectations for the revenues of these companies are not met, then a sudden drop in asset prices may occur, which threatens adverse global consequences.

The ECB expressed concern about the low liquidity of assets and the reduction of funds' cash reserves, which could lead to forced asset sales and a decrease in their value. Among other risks, the ECB noted the vulnerability of the eurozone to trade fragmentation and possible negative consequences from the introduction of tariffs, as well as an increase in borrowing by eurozone countries at higher interest rates.
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Bitcoin has reached a historic high, exceeding the $97,000 mark

Investors continue to actively invest in cryptocurrency, expecting favorable policy changes under the new president. This was reflected in the bitcoin exchange rate, which increased by almost 6% and reached $97,458.

Shares of cryptocurrency-related companies are also showing growth. MicroStrategy, one of the largest companies investing in bitcoin, rose 3% after a previous increase of more than 10%.

The rise in the price of BTC is due to hopes for a more loyal attitude towards cryptocurrencies from the new government. It is assumed that Trump may introduce more flexible regulation and even consider the possibility of creating a national strategic reserve of bitcoin. Experts predict that the price of bitcoin could reach $100,000 this year and double by the end of 2025.

Analysts also note that the growth of the bitcoin exchange rate is associated with improved liquidity, increased institutional interest and a more favorable regulatory environment. In 2024, bitcoin has already grown by more than 127%.
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