Brent fell to $78.40 per barrel

On Tuesday morning, oil prices continued to decline moderately after a sharp drop the day before. The current price of Brent oil is $78.36 per barrel, North American WTI oil is trading near $75.08. In yesterday's session, both brands ended in the red for the third week in a row.

Analysts note that oil prices have declined due to concerns about demand in China, the world's largest oil importer. Markets were shaken by a series of negative economic news from China: manufacturing activity in the country probably declined for the third month in a row in July. 

The market's attention is also focused on the upcoming meeting of the Chinese Politburo, where decisions can be made on further support for economic policy. However, expectations from this event are low, as the Third Plenum, a key political meeting in mid-July, mostly confirmed current economic goals and failed to improve market sentiment.

In addition, oil fell by 2% after Israel announced that its response to Hezbollah's missile strike on the occupied Golan Heights would be thought out in such a way as to avoid dragging the Middle East into a full-scale conflict.

It also became known that weekly oil supplies from Russia fell to the lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Tomorrow, you should pay attention to the publication of the report of the US Department of Energy. It is expected that it will show a reduction in oil reserves in the country by 3.9 million barrels. And if the reduction is greater than expected, it may support oil prices. On Monday, the US Department of Energy announced the purchase of 4.56 million barrels of oil for the strategic reserve.
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World demand for gold decreased by 6%

In the second quarter of 2024, global demand for gold (excluding OTC transactions) decreased by 6% compared to the same period last year, reaching 929 tons, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). 

The drop in demand for jewelry was the main reason for the decline: demand fell by 19% to 391 tons, and demand from the jewelry industry decreased by 17% to 411 tons. 

However, the decline in the jewelry market was partially offset by an increase in demand in other sectors. In particular, the technology sector showed an impressive 11% increase in gold consumption, to 81 tons, due to the use of gold in electronics, especially in chips for the rapidly developing field of artificial intelligence. 

Central banks, seeking to protect and diversify their reserves, increased gold purchases by 6%, to 183 tons.

The supply of gold on the market increased by 4%, to 1,258 tons. Production turned out to be a record for the second quarter — 929 tons. 

The oversupply of 329 tons was absorbed by the OTC market, which played a significant role in maintaining gold prices. Together with the demand from central banks, the OTC market has become a key driver of gold price growth.
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Oil prices are rising on concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hamas

Oil prices rose during Asian trading on Thursday, continuing the sharp rise of the previous session. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East following the assassination of the Hamas leader in Iran has increased fears of a possible large-scale war in the region. 

The oil market is reacting to an increase in risk premiums related to fears of revenge by Hamas for the assassination of the organization's leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday. Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, many believe Jerusalem is behind the attack. The rising tensions have raised fears that a full-scale war in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies from the region, which in turn could affect global markets.

Traders' attention is also focused on today's OPEC+ meeting, where information about oil production plans may be disclosed. According to media reports, no changes in the cartel's production volumes are expected, despite the recent decline in oil prices to almost two-month lows. Nevertheless, leading producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely to remain cautious about further production cuts.

The current price of Brent oil is $81.60 per barrel. North American WTI oil is trading near $78.60. Oil quotes also received support after the publication of data on a significant decrease in oil reserves in the United States for the fifth week in a row, due to high demand for fuel during the summer period of active travel.
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Bitcoin and Ether collapsed amid global economic concerns

On Monday, there was a sharp drop in the value of bitcoin amid a large-scale sale of high-risk assets.

According to CoinDesk, by noon Moscow time, the Bitcoin exchange rate had decreased by 10.8%, reaching $52,827. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has lost more than a fifth of its value, although it has still shown an increase of almost 26% since the beginning of the year.

Ethereum is also experiencing a significant drop, dropping 15.3% to $2,330, which is the biggest decline since 2021.

The Japanese stock market posted a record 12.4% drop, the highest since 1987. Futures for the US Nasdaq Composite index are also down 4.2%.

The reason for the massive sell-off of risky assets was growing concerns about a possible recession in the United States after the publication of disappointing economic data last week. Goldman Sachs analysts have increased the probability of an economic downturn in the United States in the coming year from 15% to 25%. Markets also expect that the Federal Reserve may hold an unscheduled meeting this week and cut the key rate by 0.25 percentage points with a 60% probability.
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Gold is moving away from highs amid the growth of the stock market

The price of gold fell from near record levels during Asian trading on Tuesday. The recovery of stock markets led to a decrease in demand for reliable assets, although instability in the markets still supported relatively high prices for the precious metal.

Yesterday, gold soared to a historic high due to the collapse of stock markets caused by fears of a recession in the United States and expectations of lower interest rates.

December gold futures fell 0.3% to $2402.57 per ounce. At the beginning of the week, the spot price reached $2,460 per ounce.

On Tuesday, gold weakened slightly amid the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the stock market. Nevertheless, gold has maintained much of its recent growth as the prospect of lower interest rates continues to support interest in it. 

The rise in gold prices has led to an increase in prices for other precious metals, but in recent sessions they have suffered significant losses, since their attractiveness as a "safe" asset is inferior to gold.

Silver futures fell 0.7% to $27.020 per ounce, and platinum futures fell to $918.85 per ounce. Copper prices fell 0.6% to $8,806.50 per tonne, and one-month futures fell almost 1% to $3,9660 per pound.
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Brent rose above $77 per barrel

Oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday, following a slight increase in the previous session.

On the London ICE Futures exchange, October futures for Brent crude oil rose in price to the level of $77.25 per barrel. September WTI crude futures rose to $73.71 per barrel.

Traders continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East, anticipating a possible Iranian attack on Israel after the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

«If the situation in the Middle East worsens and this affects oil supplies from the region, prices will quickly go up,» said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Traders are also concerned about the prospects for oil demand due to signals of slowing economic growth in China and the United States. Statistics released on Wednesday showed a slowdown in Chinese growth in July amid a larger-than-expected increase in imports.

Also today, the U.S. Department of Energy will present a weekly report on energy reserves. According to the American Petroleum Institute, published yesterday, oil reserves in the United States increased by 180 thousand barrels.
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European stocks are losing ground amid uncertainty

European stocks resumed their decline after two days of gains, under pressure from mixed earnings reports and uncertainty about the economic development of the United States.

The iShares STOXX Europe 600 index fell 0.9%, rolling back from last Wednesday, which was the best day for the index since November. Real estate and technology stocks were under the most pressure, while telecommunications stocks rose slightly.

Siemens AG lost ground after forecasting revenue and profit growth below expectations, Zurich Insurance Group AG declined due to increased losses in the property insurance division. Among the leaders of the day were Enter PLC, which raised its forecast for the full year, and Allianz SE, which posted higher profit figures.

The beginning of August was unstable for European stocks due to concerns about the recession in the United States. Despite this, the overall picture of profit reporting looks relatively optimistic: earnings per share growth for the MSCI Europe index is 2.4%, higher than the forecast of 0.4%.

Despite the fact that experts do not expect sharp drops in the market, they advise investors to be careful due to geopolitical instability. Technical analysis indicates the possibility of short-term growth in European stocks, but trading will remain volatile until economic data signals a "soft landing" of the US economy.
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The American labour market: optimism and anxiety

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that concerns about a worsening labour market situation were exaggerated. According to the Ministry of Labour, the number of initial applications for benefits decreased by 17 thousand to 233 thousand, which was the largest drop in the last 11 months. Experts had expected a more modest decline.

Despite the positive dynamics, the indicator remains above the average level of the current year. The average number of applications over the past four weeks has increased to 240.75 thousand, reaching an almost one-year high. The increase in the number of applications, which began in June, is partly due to temporary shutdowns of automobile plants and the effects of Hurricane Beryl in Texas.

Overall, the number of layoffs remains low, confirming data on a record low level of layoffs in June. However, the pace of growth in the labour market is slowing due to less aggressive hiring caused by the Fed's interest rate hike.
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Brent rose above $80 per barrel

Oil prices have been rising for the fifth consecutive auction due to concerns about possible supply disruptions amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. 

Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, noted that geopolitical tensions could intensify at any moment, which would put additional pressure on price growth. Geopolitical risks are likely to remain a key factor influencing oil price trends.

The data published last week in the United States turned out to be better than forecasts, which reduced concerns about a possible recession in the country's economy. These data reinforced traders' confidence that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as next month, which in turn could boost fuel demand.

The current price of Brent crude oil is $80.30 per barrel. North American WTI oil is trading near the level of $77.70. Over the past week, Brent has risen by 3.7%, and WTI — by 4.5%, ending the first of five weeks in the «plus».
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German companies continue to invest in China

German companies continue to invest heavily in China, despite government calls to diversify risks. According to the Bundesbank, Germany's direct investments in China in the first half of 2023 reached 7.3 billion euros, which is almost one and a half times more than in the whole of 2022. 

Experts note that a significant part of investments is directed to reinvest profits earned in China. Last year, German businesses reinvested more than half of the 19 billion euros of profits earned in China. 

Localization of production in China is becoming an increasingly popular strategy for German companies seeking to reduce risks in their supply chains. However, this strategy could have a negative impact on the German economy by reducing exports and creating dependence on the Chinese labor market.

The German government recommends that companies diversify their investments and sales markets, but does not call for a complete cessation of cooperation with China. 

Despite this, major automakers such as Volkswagen and BMW continue to invest heavily in China. In the last five years, Germany has been the leader in terms of EU investments in China, which indicates the continued attractiveness of the Chinese market for German businesses.
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JPMorgan: EM shares will benefit from the slowdown in the US economy

JPMorgan forecasts favorable prospects for emerging market (EM) stocks amid an expected slowdown in U.S. economic growth and lower interest rates in the second half of 2024. Analysts believe that these factors will have a positive impact on the comparative performance of EM shares due to differences in growth rates and interest rates.

Experts believe that adjusting expectations regarding rates and growth in the United States will lead to a higher valuation of EM shares in global investment strategies. However, they warn of risks, including economic downturns, market instability and the impact of the upcoming U.S. elections on international trade and investment risks.

The growth gap between EM countries and developed markets (DM) is expected to widen to 2.7% in 2024, compared with 2.5% in 2023. The Fed's rate cut may create opportunities for monetary policy easing in the EM.

Other factors boosting the attractiveness of EM stocks include limited investments in the sector, attractive prices, diversification strategies from U.S. stocks, and a weakening U.S. dollar.

The historically slowing but resilient U.S. economy is favorable for EM stocks. During periods of Fed rate cuts, EM stocks usually perform better: the average decline is 11% for EM, 15% for DM and 13% for the US.
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The yuan is rising amid a weakening dollar

On Monday, the yuan showed the most significant growth in two weeks, reaching 7.1363 per dollar, which is 0.4% higher than the previous day. This increase, the largest since the beginning of August, is due to the weakening of the dollar and expectations of lower interest rates in the United States. 

However, the yuan lost ground against the resurgent yen, falling 1% to 20.38 yen, which was the strongest drop since August 5. As a result, the yuan fell to 98.07 against a basket of trading partner currencies, the lowest level since January 15. 

Traders are waiting for the announcement of the base rate on loans in China on Tuesday. The collapse of bank lending, falling housing prices and gloomy economic sentiment, according to analysts, will not allow the currency to grow significantly further. 

The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds fell by 1.8 basis points to 2.17%, while the yield on similar benchmark U.S. government debt was 3.9%. 

The 7-day repo rate for the yuan in the domestic market was 1.74%, and in the futures market, the 3-month yuan was quoted at 7.0695, 722 points higher than the spot rate. Three-month forward contracts on CNH were trading at 7.0682 per dollar. The People's Bank of China has set the average rate around which the yuan can trade in the 2% range at 7.1415 per dollar.
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S&P 500: the forecast for 5600 points remains

Analysts maintained an optimistic outlook for the S&P 500 index, expecting it to rise to 5600 points by the end of the year. The strong result of the second quarter, when the profits of S&P 500 companies increased by 10.5% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 8.1%, became the basis for such a positive attitude. 

Seven major technology companies contributed significantly to this growth, increasing earnings per share by 38%. It is important to note that the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies also showed positive profit growth, which is the first time in the last six quarters. 

Despite the good performance, profit growth forecasts for the second half of the year were slightly adjusted down to 10% y/y. Analysts note the risks to the market, in particular, rising unemployment and the likelihood of a recession. 

Nevertheless, they believe that reducing the dependence of the index's income on cyclical sectors may provide some stability. The consensus forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 coincides with analysts' estimate of $250, which supports the target for the S&P 500 at the end of the year. 

Analysts have expressed doubts about the ambitious forecast for profit growth of 15% in 2025, offering a more cautious forecast in the area of high single-digit percentage growth rates. Despite these considerations, analysts remain positive about the market and confirm their year-end S&P 500 target at 5,600.
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Chinese banks have increased assets by 7%

According to Xiao Yuanqi, Deputy head of the State Administration for Financial Supervision and Control of the People's Republic of China, the total assets of the Chinese banking sector at the end of July amounted to 423.8 trillion yuan ($59.4 billion), an increase of 7% compared to the same period last year.

Positive trends are also observed in the field of credit quality: the share of non-performing loans decreased by 8 basis points to 1.61%.

The equity capital adequacy ratio of banks in the first half of the year reached 15.53%, which indicates the high strength of the industry and its ability to withstand risks, Xinhua news agency reports.

Xiao Yuan qi stressed that the GUF will continue to support banks in optimizing the structure of assets and liabilities, as well as in finding new sources of profit growth to increase profitability.
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Powell's performance was a turning point for gold

The gold market is once again reaching record highs, exceeding the mark of $2,560 per ounce. This upward movement in the market was provoked by a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, where he made it clear that the Fed is ready to lower interest rates.

Lower Treasury bond yields, a weaker dollar and increased investment in exchange-traded funds investing in gold (ETFs) create a favorable environment for gold prices to rise. These factors, which previously inhibited the growth of the value of gold, can now become a powerful incentive for it.

Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, notes that the expectation of interest rate cuts from the Fed was a turning point for gold. He emphasizes that previously everyone believed that the Fed would be the last to cut rates, but now the situation has changed.

This year, gold has shown impressive growth, setting new records and occupying one of the leading positions among the main commodities.
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Research: 4 risks for the dollar dominance

Researchers from the Brookings Institution have identified several factors that can undermine the dominance of the dollar in global markets. Although the dollar remains the main reserve currency, its share in global reserves has decreased from 71% in 1999 to 59% in 2024. 

At the same time, the share of reserves in alternative currencies such as the Australian dollar, Swiss franc and Chinese yuan is growing.

One of the main threats to the dollar is the US sanctions, which have prompted Russia and China to actively seek de-dollarization. Russia is switching to payments in yuan and developing alternative payment systems, while China is promoting its yuan as a substitute for the dollar.

The growing U.S. government debt is also a concern for investors. A rapid increase in government spending and a decrease in the US credit rating may weaken confidence in the dollar and make it less attractive to holders of foreign exchange reserves.

The improvement of payment technologies is another factor threatening the dollar. New systems allow countries such as China and India to exchange their currencies directly, bypassing the dollar. This may reduce the demand for the dollar, which has traditionally been used in international settlements.

In addition, the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) increases competition for the dollar. China is actively developing its digital currency and payment systems, while the United States is still lagging behind in this area, which puts the dollar in a less favorable position.

Despite these risks, experts believe that the dollar will remain the dominant currency in the near future, since its competitors cannot yet replace it. However, attempts at de-dollarization can lead to economic problems for those who abandon the American currency.
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The dollar is recovering after the fall

On Thursday, the US dollar recovered from its recent fall, rebounding from a 13-month low. The dollar index, which tracks the USD exchange rate against a basket of six other currencies, rose 0.2% to 101.182.

The recovery of the exchange rate is associated with an increase in demand for the dollar as a "safe currency" amid worsening geopolitical problems in the Middle East, as well as concerns about the resumption of trade disputes between China and the West.

However, the dollar is still under pressure due to the expected reduction in US interest rates next month. In August, the dollar fell by about 2.9%, which was the sharpest drop in the last nine months.

Preliminary GDP data showed the resilience of the American economy, fueling hopes for a soft landing. But the latest data also revealed a weakening of the labor market.

Data on the PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released on Friday and is likely to affect interest rate forecasts.
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China is changing the game: new challenges for the global economy

China, long considered the engine of the global economy, is now experiencing a decline in consumer confidence and spending cuts.

The problems of the real estate market, the weakness of the labor market and the fall in stock prices exacerbate the situation, reducing household well-being and leading to a decrease in confidence in the economy. As a result, the trend towards reducing consumer spending is strengthening, which is especially alarming, since China's economic growth is increasingly dependent on domestic consumption.

A weak labor market is a special factor that causes panic and encourages people to stick to conservative measures more. New savings are growing and spending is declining, creating a vicious circle of low confidence and an economically stagnant situation.

It is worth noting that the change in sentiment in China has negative consequences for the global economy. A decrease in import demand leads to a slowdown in global growth. An excess of goods creates deflationary risks, and the retail sales sector is experiencing serious difficulties.

Chinese consumers are becoming cautious, which negatively affects the financial results of the world's leading brands, especially those focused on the Chinese market. Instead of stimulating growth, the Chinese government pays great attention to regulation, preferring the sustainability of expansion.
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Experts: Bitcoin and Ethereum have no future

The period of bitcoin's rapid growth seems to have come to an unexpected end. Many experts and investors are convinced that a further rise in BTC should not be expected. This opinion reflects the current pessimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

The beginning of the year was marked by general euphoria, when memecoins were considered as a new investment opportunity, and some digital assets predicted an increase of 50 times. However, today, in the face of general skepticism, even moderate forecasts seem too optimistic.

The volatility of the cryptocurrency market has long been known: sharp ups are often replaced by collapses. However, despite the pessimistic forecasts, there is also a positive trend. Thus, Zürcher Cantonalbank, one of the largest banks in Switzerland, has provided its customers with the opportunity to trade and store bitcoin and Ethereum through mobile applications. This happened on September 4 in cooperation with Crypto Finance, regulated by FINMA.

The example of ZKB demonstrates that despite the current difficulties, the process of accepting cryptocurrencies in the financial world continues. In Switzerland, the attitude towards digital assets remains positive, which strengthens their position in the global market.

In general, although the short-term prospects may look disappointing, the long-term adoption of cryptocurrencies and the participation of traditional financial institutions in them indicate their significant potential and sustainability.
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Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2%

The Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) has published final data on eurozone GDP growth in the second quarter. The eurozone economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous three months and by 0.6% year-on-year, confirming preliminary estimates.

Despite the positive dynamics, consumer spending decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, and gross capital investment decreased by 2.2%. On the other hand, government spending increased by 0.6% and exports increased by 1.4%, while imports increased by 0.5%.

The dynamics of GDP in individual eurozone countries varies. Germany faced a 0.1% quarter—on-quarter GDP contraction, while France and Italy posted 0.2% growth and Spain 0.8%. 

Preliminary data on the dynamics of eurozone GDP in the third quarter will be published on October 30.
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Gold Soars to the Stratosphere

No correction? No problem. Even the slightest dips in gold attract new bulls eager to buy at lower prices. The combination of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, slowing global economy, uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, high demand from central banks, and gold's status as a safe-haven asset leaves no doubt about the strength of the upward trend in XAU/USD and the precious metal's ability to set new records.

Rumors of an impending recession are pushing treasury bond yields downward, which in turn is causing global debt yields to fall. The average yield on investment-grade government and corporate debt has dropped to 3.3%, its lowest level since September 2022. The main beneficiary of this process is gold, which pays no interest and easily outperforms bonds when rates fall.

Global Bond Yield Dynamics

The cooling of the U.S. labor market and economy forces the Fed to begin a monetary easing cycle, which has historically benefited precious metals. In theory, the U.S. dollar weakens under such conditions, providing a tailwind for XAU/USD. However, as events in 2023-2024 have shown, gold can rise even amidst a rally in the USD index. It serves as an alternative to fiat currencies, which are suffering from the synchronization of the Fed's monetary easing with other central banks.

Moreover, central banks, especially in developing countries, favor precious metals as assets immune to third-party countries' influence. In particular, the U.S.'s push to impose the dollar as a reserve currency and means of payment is facing resistance and has triggered a process of de-dollarization. As a result, central banks are likely to maintain a high appetite for gold purchases.

Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris comes to power in the U.S., the budget deficit will continue to grow. It stands at a record $35.4 trillion, and there are no signs of it decreasing. Both Republicans and Democrats will push for new fiscal stimulus measures, which will increase the imbalance and heighten default risks. This creates an ideal environment for safe-haven assets like gold.

Thus, XAU/USD has plenty of reasons to continue its rally. Will the precious metal wait for the August U.S. inflation data, or will it surge to record highs beforehand? In any case, the deflationary process amid a cooling labor market speaks about the slowdown of the U.S. economy, increases the risks of aggressive monetary easing by the Fed, and lights a green light for the analyzed asset.

Technically, the daily gold chart shows a Spike and Ledge pattern. A breakout of the upper boundary of the consolidation range at $2470–2525 per ounce will increase the chances of a sustained rally toward at least $2575 and serve as a signal for purchases.
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Solar vs. Media Storm: Solar Gains, Trump Media Falls!

US Stocks Gain Thanks to Tech Sector
All three major US stock indexes ended higher on Wednesday. A solid rally in tech stocks offset a morning of disappointment caused by inflation data that dashed hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week.

The tech sector, represented by the S&P 500 (.SPLRCT), posted an impressive 3.3% gain after starting the day lower. Key to this was Nvidia (NVDA.O), whose shares soared 8%. The reason for the rise was a report from Semafor that the US government is considering allowing Nvidia to export advanced chips to Saudi Arabia.

Political factors fuel investor interest
An additional factor influencing market sentiment was events in the political arena. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris managed to put her opponent, Republican Donald Trump, on the defensive during the presidential debate, which caused some reaction from the market.

Inflation data: expectations were not met
Earlier in the day, the US Department of Labor released data on the consumer price index (CPI), which rose 0.2% in August, which is in line with July. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3%, beating economists' expectations of a 0.2% gain.

Market Rate Changes: Traders Adjust Forecasts
Following the release of inflation data, traders revised down their expectations for a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 85% from 66% the day before, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to 15% from 34%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Investors were hoping for softer inflation data
"The market was probably expecting a more muted inflation reading, which would give the Fed more reason to cut rates by 50 basis points," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis. "However, the report came in slightly above expectations, putting additional pressure on the Fed to limit itself to a 25 basis point cut."

As the trading day wore on, investors gradually adjusted to the new inflation data. Janasewicz also emphasized that it was the technology sector that supported the broader market, standing out from the crowd.

Indices rise amid gains in tech stocks
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 124.75 points, or 0.31%, to 40,861.71. The S&P 500 Index (.SPX) rose 58.61 points, or 1.07%, to 5,554.13. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 369.65 points, or 2.17%, to 17,395.53.

Sector Breakdown: Who's Leading and Laggards?
Of the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, six were up, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the way, up 1.3%. Meanwhile, energy (.SPNY) was the laggard, down 0.93%, and consumer staples (.SPLRCS) was down 0.88%.

Financials Hold Their Ground
The S&P 500 Financials (.SPSY) managed to pare its losses by the end of trading, closing down just 0.39% after falling more than 2% at the session low.

Financials Gain
American Express (AXP.N) led the pack, posting the biggest gains after its CFO said on a conference call that lending was holding up and consumer spending was strong.

Big U.S. banks also pared early losses to end the day higher. Goldman Sachs (GS.N) rose 0.9% and JPMorgan (JPM.N) rose 0.8%. The financial sector was under pressure earlier Tuesday on concerns about a drop in trading revenue, a slow recovery in investment banking and a possible decline in interest income in light of upcoming rate changes.

Market Reacts to Political Debate
The political debate also caused notable market moves. Eight weeks before the presidential election and after the debate, contracts on a Kamala Harris victory on the PredictIt platform rose to 57 cents on the dollar of potential payout, up from 53 cents before the debate. Donald Trump contracts fell to 48 cents from 52 cents.

These changes led to a decline in the value of stocks of companies that were expected to benefit from a Trump presidency. In particular, stocks related to cryptocurrency, blockchain, and private prisons showed a decline. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) shares fell 10.5%.

Solar companies are favorites due to political expectations
Amid the expected benefits for green energy from a Harris administration, shares of solar panel manufacturers have significantly increased. First Solar (FSLR.O) climbed 15.2%, Sunrun (RUN.O) added 11.3% and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.O) rose 8.5%.

Markets Remain Unsure After Debate
While the debate did not provide Wall Street with a clear answer to important policy questions, experts believe that Kamala Harris' proposals to raise corporate taxes could weigh on corporate profits. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's tough stance on tariffs could increase inflation risks.

GameStop Slips After News of Share Sale
GameStop (GME.N) shares fell nearly 12% after the company announced plans to issue up to 20 million new shares and reported a decline in second-quarter revenue, raising investor concerns about the company's future growth.

Lithium Stocks Rise After CATL Announcement
Lithium stocks surged after Chinese battery major CATL (300750.SZ) announced plans to adjust lithium carbonate production at its Yichun facility. Shares of Albemarle (ALB.N), one of the world's largest lithium miners, rose 13.6% in response to the news.

Marginal Markets: Stocks Rising and Falling
At the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancers outnumbered decliners 1.4 to 1, with 342 new highs and 130 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 2,337 stocks rose and 1,882 fell, creating a 1.24-to-1 gainer-decliner ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and 17 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 48 new highs and 129 lows. Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 12.19 billion shares, above the 20-day moving average of 10.80 billion shares.

Market Rebounds After Morning Selloff
Wall Street recovered from a morning selloff on Wednesday, closing higher. Brent crude prices also rebounded from three-and-a-half-year lows. This came as a key inflation report bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week.

Debate and the Market: Analyzing the Implications
Investors were closely watching the US presidential debate on Tuesday night to assess possible changes in economic and fiscal policy after the November elections.

By mid-trading, all three major US stock indexes had reversed their downward trend, turning a morning sell-off into a rally. Technology (.SPLRCT), especially chip makers (.SOX), outperformed significantly, helping the Nasdaq to lead the way.

Inflation Data: Mixed Signals for the Market
The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%, below expectations, according to the US Department of Labor. But the benchmark index, which excludes volatile categories such as food and energy, posted a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.2% annual gain, beating analysts' forecasts.

Inflation expectations remain mixed
"The inflation report was a mixed bag, satisfying both the bears and the bulls," said Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services in Indiana. "Initially, it looked like a 50 basis point rate cut was unlikely," he continued. "Now investors may be starting to realize that it's not such bad news."

Markets predict Fed rate cut
Markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting. The chance of a larger 50 basis point rate cut has fallen to 15%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

European stocks remain steady ahead of ECB decision
European stock markets ended the trading session little changed as investors turned their attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) and its upcoming interest rate decision expected on Thursday. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose a symbolic 0.01%, while the MSCI index of global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.62%.

Asian Markets, Emerging Economies in the Red
Emerging market stocks were down 0.37%. MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.24%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 1.49%.

Bonds: Yields stabilise after recent swings
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields steadied after an early decline, with rates hitting their lowest since June 2, 2023. The 10-year yield was last at 3.6609%, down from 3.644% at Tuesday's close, with the price down 5/32. The 30-year note also fell 12/32, pushing its yield up to 3.9743% from 3.954% the previous day.

Dollar Strengthens on Inflation Data
The U.S. currency showed modest gains against a basket of global currencies after inflation data confirmed expectations for a smaller 25 basis point rate cut.

The dollar index (.DXY) rose 0.08%, while the euro slipped 0.04% to $1.1015.

Yen Strengthens, Pound Loses
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.04% against the U.S. dollar to trade at 142.40 per dollar. The British pound was last seen at $1.3042, down 0.28% on the day.

Oil Recovers After Selloff
Oil prices steadied after Tuesday's big losses as U.S. crude inventories fell and supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine offset concerns about weaker global demand.

U.S. WTI crude rose 2.37% to $67.31 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.05% to $70.61 a barrel.

Gold Loses as Rate Cut Hopes Dim
Gold prices slipped as expectations for a bigger Fed rate cut at its upcoming monetary policy meeting faded.
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Moderna's bleak outlook drags stocks lower, Warner Brothers inspires investors with 10% gain

Wall Street is on the rise again: gold hits records
US stock markets showed solid gains on Thursday, with gold prices reaching a new all-time high. Investors are optimistic about the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, expecting an interest rate cut as early as next week.

Stock indices end the day higher
The key US indices fluctuated in mixed territory for most of the trading day, but showed solid gains by the close. The European Central Bank's recent decision to cut interest rates and slightly better-than-expected U.S. producer price data helped fuel the rally. Despite this, investors remain confident that the Fed will cut rates slightly at its next meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.58%, the S&P 500 rose 0.75%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. Strong results from tech companies helped the Nasdaq take the lead in growth.

World markets trending
The MSCI World Equity Index, which measures markets around the world, rose 1.08%, confirming positive investor sentiment in global markets.

ECB Cuts Rates Again
Earlier on Thursday, the European Central Bank announced its second interest rate cut in three months, which was driven by slowing inflation and weakening economic growth in the eurozone. The cut was predictable, but the ECB has yet to give clear signals about its future plans.

While the 0.25% rate cut did not come as a surprise to the market, the question remains as to how decisively and quickly the central bank will act in the remaining months of the year.

Focus on the Federal Reserve
Market participants are now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which will decide on the key interest rate on Wednesday. Investors are expecting the Fed to make the first rate cut since 2020. However, fresh economic data released on Thursday suggest that the Fed will likely limit the rate cut to 25 basis points, rather than the larger 50 basis point cut that some analysts had previously expected.

Inflation data softened expectations
An important factor for the upcoming Fed decision was the inflation data released on Wednesday and Thursday. The indicators point to a slight increase in prices, but the rate of inflation remains relatively low. Thus, the core consumer price index increased by 0.28% in August, which is higher than the expected growth of 0.2%. In addition, the data on producer prices also exceeded expectations: in August, they grew by 0.2% instead of the expected 0.1%. Despite this, the general trend remains in favor of slowing inflation, which increases the likelihood of a moderate rate cut.

The dollar weakens, the euro grows
Amid expectations of a rate cut, the US dollar showed weakness against major world currencies. The dollar index, which tracks its dynamics against a basket of leading currencies, fell by 0.52%, reaching 101.25. At the same time, the euro strengthened by 0.54%, reaching $1.1071. This trend reflects global changes in investor sentiment, who expect further easing of monetary policy in the United States.

Oil prices rise: Hurricane impact, production recovery
Oil prices continued their upward movement, adding almost 3%, amid investor concerns about how severely U.S. crude output will be affected by Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, producers announced forced production cuts, but there were signs that some export ports were partially reopening.

WTI crude rose 2.72% to $69.14 per barrel, while benchmark Brent crude rose 2.21% to $72.17 per barrel.

Gold at new heights: a safe haven for investors
Gold prices soared to all-time highs as expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut made the precious metal even more attractive for investment. Amid market instability, gold has once again confirmed its status as a "safe haven" for capital.

Spot gold rose 1.85% to a record $2,558 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.79% to settle at $2,557 an ounce.

Bond Market: Yields Rise on Inflation Data
U.S. Treasury yields also showed modest gains. The two-year yield rose 1.2 basis points to 3.6579%. The 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to 3.683%.

Inflation Beats Expectations
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks changes in the cost of goods and services at the producer level, rose 0.2% in August, beating expectations for a 0.1% gain. The core measure, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose 0.3%, also beating expectations for a 0.2% gain.

Labor Market Remains Stable
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 7 was 230,000, which was in line with analysts' expectations. This data confirms the stable state of the American labor market, despite some macroeconomic fluctuations.

Employment and Economic Growth: Market Awaits Fed Decision
The latest economic reports show weakening employment and slowing economic growth, which has raised expectations for a deeper 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, the release of inflation data on Wednesday changed the market sentiment, with traders now assessing the likelihood of a more modest cut.

Fed: Rate Cut Likely
Despite Thursday's fluctuations, CME's FedWatch tool showed that traders still have a 69% chance of expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September 17-18 meeting. If that happens, it would be the first rate cut since March 2020, marking an important step in monetary policy.

Russell 2000 Leads Gain
Against these expectations, the Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies was the best performer among the indices, gaining 1.2%. That underscores confidence that small businesses can benefit from the upcoming easing of credit conditions.

S&P 500: All Sectors in the Green
All 11 industry sectors in the S&P 500 ended the day in positive territory. Communications services led the way, rising 2%. Warner Bros Discovery was particularly strong, jumping 10.4% after the company announced an agreement with Charter Communications to give customers access to ad-supported versions of its Warner Max and Discovery+ streaming services. Charter also posted a strong gain, gaining 3.6%.

Moderna Under Pressure
Not all stocks ended the day in positive territory. Shares of vaccine maker Moderna fell 12.4%, hitting their lowest since November last year. The company announced revenue guidance for next year in the range of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, which was lower than analysts expected, which caused the stock to fall.

Kroger pleases investors: shares soar
One of the brightest news of the day was the rapid growth of shares of the supermarket chain Kroger, which rose by 7.2%. This happened because the company exceeded expectations for the second quarter results and raised the lower limit of its annual sales forecast. The optimistic report became a signal to investors that the chain is confidently coping with market challenges.

Gold miners on a wave of success
Shares of companies involved in gold mining sharply went up, following the rise in prices of the precious metal. The spot price of gold reached an all-time high, which led to a 5.8% increase in the Arca Gold BUGS index. Investors continue to view gold as a safe haven against market risk and inflation, fueling interest in the gold mining sector.

Bulls outnumber losers on the NYSE and Nasdaq
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancers outnumbered losers by a wide margin, 3.45 to 1. There were 405 new highs and just 46 new lows, a strong showing for bulls.

On the Nasdaq, advancers also outnumbered losers by a wide margin, 1.73 to 1. The S&P 500 posted 37 new yearly highs and no new lows, signaling positive sentiment in the market, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 73 new highs and 76 new lows, showing more diversity in stock performance.

Volumes Remain Steady
The total volume of shares traded on U.S. exchanges was 10.58 billion, just slightly below the 10.82 billion average over the past 20 trading sessions. This figure shows that activity in the markets remains strong despite some swings in individual sectors.
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India: economic growth is possible up to 8%

The head of the Reserve Bank of India, Shaktikanta Das, expressed confidence in the country's ability to achieve sustainable economic growth in the region of 7.5-8% in the medium term.

This statement was made against the background of published data on the slowdown in India's GDP growth to 6.7% in the second quarter of this year, compared with 8.2% in the same period last year. This dynamic has increased the pressure on the RBI to lower interest rates.

Das stressed that steady growth of 7.5-8% is realistic for the largest country in the world. Although the International Monetary Fund previously called India the «fastest growing major economy in the world,» growth has slowed in recent quarters and the IMF forecasts a decline to 6.5% in 2025.

The head of the RBI also noted that the influence of external factors, such as the actions of the Fed, is taken into account, but internal factors remain decisive. The question of a possible reduction in the RBI rate in October remained open. Das stated that the decision will depend on the monthly dynamics of inflation and growth.
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Oil growth is held back by concerns about weakening demand

Yesterday, Brent oil prices rose to $73.30 per barrel, supported by expectations of lower interest rates and supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine. 

However, this growth was held back today by concerns about declining demand, especially in China, amid weak economic data released over the weekend. The current Brent quote is $72.50 per barrel. North American WTI crude is trading near $68.96. 

Supply disruptions due to Hurricane Francine

After Hurricane Francine, oil production in the Gulf of Mexico decreased by 12%, and natural gas production by 16%. These disruptions may contribute to further price increases, although oil companies have been actively restoring production in recent days as the hurricane weakens.

Awaiting the Fed's decision

Investors are waiting for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on Wednesday. The central bank may lower rates, which will support oil prices. Expectations of a more significant rate cut of 50 basis points put pressure on the dollar and stimulate the growth of oil prices.

Concerns about demand

However, the increase in oil prices is limited by concerns about slowing economic growth in China. The recent weak economic performance of China, the world's largest oil importer, has increased concerns about demand for black gold. An additional negative was brought by the forecasts of OPEC and the IEA, which lowered expectations of oil demand for the coming years.
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