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 ForexMart's Forex News

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Andrea ForexMart
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PostSubject: ForexMart's Forex News   Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:40 am
UK Inflation Rate Fell to 3% in December


The inflation rate of Britain edged lower for the first time in six months in December, which was driven by the price of airfares and games and toys. The rate went down to 3 percent versus 3.1 percent in November, this is the fastest decline over five years. While the core measure of consumer price growth also decreased to 2.5 percent five-month low.


The British pound lost its strength on the back of the data publication and currently trades at  $1.3772 as of 10:37, lower by 0.2 percent on the day. The numbers can be regarded to be the inflection point for the inflation due to impact from Sterling depreciation after the dwindling of 2016 Brexit referendum. The Bank of England along with the economists showed some projections for the possible downturn in 2018 and others predicted that the economy will be at the 2.4 percent level at the end of this year.


The drop recorded in December was mainly influenced by the technical adjustments of airfares within the inflation basket. However, the Office for National Statistics remains uncertain whether this move signaled for the beginning of a longer-term reduction in the rate. On the same month, services inflation plunged to 2.5 percent, which is the lowest in nine months.


The slackening inflation had a positive effect on households, especially those with low incomes as prices continued to rise. Economists polled by Bloomberg foresee some growth improvement in the currently weak household consumption by 2019. But, it will continue to sit below its recent average in both years. While predictions for headline inflations seems cool, but the  Bank of England policymakers focused more on the changes in domestic price pressures caused by low unemployment and contraction of supplies. In November 2017, the BoE approved for an interest rate hike for the first time after 10 years and spoken about the further rate hike in the subsequent years.

According to experts, the upward pressure on inflation partially comes from the sluggish productivity growth which hit the British economy since the Great Recession. On the other hand, policymaker Silvana Tenreyro had a positive outlook during her speech on Monday. Tenreyro stated that the economy will grow in the medium term which could reverse the forecast for interest rates.



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PostSubject: ForexMart's Forex News   Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:12 am
Eurozone’s Lower Inflation Rate in December Far from ECB’s Target


Inflation in the eurozone moved further away from the target of the European Central bank for two months from November, as stated in the revised data published on Wednesday that confirms the previous statement.


According to the data from Eurostat, consumer prices increase by 1.4 percent annually in December from 1.5 percent a month before. This was in line with the “flash estimate” published by the start of January which was forecasted by economists on Reuter’s survey.


The year-on-year rate remained steadfast, excluding more volatile food, alcohol, and tobacco components and recorded at 0.9 percent in December, which supports the previous reading.

ECB chief Mario Draghi mentioned that he anticipates inflations to have a short-lived pullback as the effect of losing momentum for a rebound of energy prices as the economy and the labor market starting to gain its ground. Although, he noted that inflation should start moving in following the ECB target of almost 2 percent in the long run.





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PostSubject: ForexMart's Forex News   Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:27 am
Tax Overhaul Supported Increase for US Economy


The U.S economy is expected to expand by 2.7 percent in 2018 due to  President Trump’s tax reduction that led to growth, as indicated in the new report by the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday. This further showed positive news in the economy marking a one-year leadership of the president in the White House. However, inequality in the United States remained to be extreme.


The initial forecast of the IMF for the American growth was only 2.3 percent but they decided to increase their predictions following the approval of the comprehensive amendment of the U.S. tax code in the past 30 years.
The significant corporation tax reduction rate from 35 percent to 21 percent will stir up growth in business investments, based on the recent World Economic Outlook quarter report of the IMF.


The United States also gained benefit from the world economic rebound which resulted in additional trade and purchase of some American products. The Washington-based organization mentioned about almost 120 countries that improved in 2017, which can be seen as a synchronized upward shift of economy since 2010. The IMF recently issued a brighter forecast for the US while the Wells Fargo currently projects for a 3 percent growth for this year. However, the IMF warned that the surge appears to be temporary and other organizations, particularly the World Economic Forum coincided with this statement. According to them, the boost is not enough to lessen the inequality issues which shows that top 1 progressed while the income of middle-classes was stagnant for nearly 20 years.

The reduction in the rate of tax is basically predicted to grow this year until 2018 and the increase will soon fade after the budget deficit ramp up and the government is obliged to seek further options either reduce expenditures or raise the revenue. In addition to it, the trade deficit could possibly even grow along with the economic improvement and Americans purchase more overseas products.





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PostSubject: ForexMart's Forex News   Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:10 pm
Uncertainty of Brexit: Puts the Top Financial Center at Risk


Trading relations between Britain and European Union is still uncertain, which poses risk to  London being the world’s top financial center based on the business survey on Monday.

There was a slowed growth in the financial sector based on the quarterly survey from business lobby CBI and consultants PwC for the three succeeding quarters in the last three months of the year. For two year, the flat trend or a decline phase has been prominent in the period of two years, although, the general transaction was steady as a whole.

Majority of the businesses are looking for certainty in Britain regarding its trade relations in the future, based on the survey done. A CBI Chief Economist, Rain Newton-Smith, said that clarity is needed to gain back business confidence which would dictate on the good opportunities against the bad ones as “consequences of failure”.

On Monday, it is anticipated for the European Union to approve criteria on negotiations as a transition period of Brexit until March 2019 that includes new trading rules.

The head of financial services at PwC, Andrew Kail, said that the transition period will probably take place but the financial sector needs to prepare to function outside the bloc.

They needed to have a counter measure to sustain its trading status and business model.

Other cities such as Luxembourg, Paris, and Frankfurt Dublin are attempting to gain financial services from London to proceed with their transactions with EU customers after Brexit. Paris could surpass London as the leading financial center in few years time, according to the French Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, a statement on Reuters.

Gains from financial companies proceeds to grow in the final quarter of 2017, which is also anticipated to be similar the first three months of the year, based on the recent survey.

When it comes to the workforce, eighteen percent comes from the eurozone, which increased from 8 percent ten years ago. The municipal officials for the capital’s “Square Mile” financial district, a report says that almost one for every five workers in 2016 was from a European country, which has been the highest figure recorded so far. Meanwhile, around 59 percent of employees came from outside of Europe.

Another survey shows 54 percent out of 02 companies wanted to make it simpler to attract more workers for Britain’s financial technology or fintech sector.





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PostSubject: ForexMart's Forex News   Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:36 pm
Canadian Free Trade Slow Down its Economy


The Canadian economy had an unfavorable situation in the previous year. The trade data was published yesterday that shows a continuous decline in growth and tried hard to gain profits outside the energy sector despite the positive exchange rate and the demand in exports of US non-energy products reduced in terms of volumes. Also, any recorded growth over the past decades was mainly driven by higher prices.


The inactivity of the past years is considered an enigma for policymakers which may question Canada’s ability to maintain its growth rate followed by the fastest 3 percent expansion in 2017 over six years. Bank of Montreal Economist Benjamin Reitzes mentioned that the country’s current trade environment remains fragile due to the sluggishness of non-commodity exports. Canadians desire is to become “perennial optimists” of international trading amid uncertainties arises regarding advantages of open economies.


According to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, trade is the main factor for economic growth, making his Liberal Party lawmakers advocates to preserve the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is currently in the seventh round of talks.


The trade performance of the country was dull except for oil and its non-energy trade deficit increased by $8.64 billion (US$6.9 billion) in December and $87 billion for the entire year. Generally, the number of export volumes including oil failed to sustain along with the imports which would mean trade industry was largely driven by the excellent economic performance last year thanks to domestic demand. With this, the Bank of Canada may delay the interest rate hike while evaluating the overall economic condition.

The not so strong non-energy trade indicates that Canada is highly dependent on oil in order to keep its trade balance from falling, even though Trudeau strives to turn around from commodities.  Moreover, energy exports came in at 17 percent in 2017 and move higher by 14 percent in the beginning of the year.



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PostSubject: Economic News   Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:10 am
More Pressure Besets Chinese Local Government with New Bond Rules


Local governments of Beijing were pressured to settle their financial problems while a new rule on are issued on lending companies.


Chinese firms have to confirm publicly that funds gained in selling bonds should not add to local government debt and they are not siding on any government financing sector based on the given notice from the country’s top planning agency.


Moreover, corporations should not demand or accept any assurance from local governments on debt financing, as stated by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).


Regulators are looking for means to have a better control in the midst of a wider systemic risk on the high local government debt and their transparent financing.


Authorities are trying to separate financial actions as part of their restriction, which is often related to stand-alone companies in a technical perspective. In particular, credit rating agencies should not associate the financial reports and project data in credit ratings work with the local government credit ratings, according to the NDRC.


The Chinese government is trying to instill on investors that actions will be taken if they did wrongfully.


It means that the government is not responsible on increase in debts by these firms but they are still expected to intercept to provide support for these companies, referred as local government financing vehicles (LGFV) in settling compensation concerns.


The local debt of China’s government increased by 7.5 percent to 16.47 trillion yuan or $2.56 trillion at the end of 2017, based on the calculations by Reuters, which is still within the target figure of the government.


Outstanding corporate debt amounted to 165 percent of GDP, which has been the highest among major economies and is mostly owned by the state.

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PostSubject: Economic News   Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:09 pm
France Faces Structural Unemployment Issues


The jobless rate in France had decline generally, but there are no immediate solutions for skill shortages. French unemployment lowered down by double figures during the third quarter last year and resumed to drop until the fourth quarter. According to Bloomberg, the country’s unemployment rate in December 2017 was 8.9 percent while the fastest acceleration in employment creation since 1996. On the other hand, unemployment in 2017 plunge to 1.9 percent which is a major downturn in a decade.


Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron promised to lessen the unemployment by 7 percent in the year 2022. Structural unemployment is also one of the largest shortcomings during the Hollande administration in which Macron performed as the Minister of the Economy.


Nevertheless, France is also known for its issue regarding the country’s increasing skills gap. As mentioned by the Financial Times, there are about two million French workers with less qualification which became the underlying factor for structural unemployment. According to estimates, the job market of France was unable to appease the demand of 200,000- to-330,000 posts due to failure finding the appropriate candidate.


Moreover, the current administration plans to have a €15bn investment programme to improve employability skills especially for the below average job seekers and long-term unemployed. In case of the approval of the project, it will take two-to-three years to take effect.

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PostSubject: Economic News   Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:20 am
South Korea’s BOK Prepares for Possible Scenario In Sudden Fed Rate Hikes


The Bank of Korea is ready to face any unfavorable outcome following the policy tightening in the U.S. at a faster rate, according to the chief of South Korea’s central bank, Lee Ju-yeol.

If the Fed acted earlier than expected, it will have an effect on the global financial market, as well as local market. Hence, they prepared beforehand in possible scenarios, as told by Lee Ju-yeol to reporters in Zurich.

He also said that the central anticipated the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase their rate thrice in 2018.

Another factor that will be faced by Korea is the protectionist moves of the U.S. against South Korea, he added.





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PostSubject: Economic News   Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:43 am
Fed’s Tighter Policy Risk in Higher Rates


More demand for safe-haven assets and low productivity growth induce the Federal Reserve to keep their rates low, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve President, James Bullard, on Monday.


If the Federal Reserve will proceed with the rate hikes, a tighter policy would be ideal for the current economy. The goal of the federal funds would be around 1.25 and 1.5 percent and current rates still fall between this range as recommended with following a neutral rate that is kept at bay by various factors moving at a slower pace.


If rates have substantially increased without changes in the data, monetary policies would then become restrictive. There is a worry that the FOMC might go on “too fast”, added by Bullard. There must be support from the data to continue with the rate hike.   


The Federal Open Market Committee is anticipated to increase its interest rates in March meeting at least twice a year, in reference to the latest December forecast of policymakers.


Bullard is known to be the most cautious among Fed officials when talking about rate hikes while the U.S. is deemed to have a low growth following a low-inflation policy and the rate should not be too high unlike there are clear indications that the economy has changed.


The term “neutral” was discussed during the National Association of Business Economists conference following the remarks of Bullard denoting that the monetary policy is a way to determine the positivity and negativity of economic activity.


Vague as it may be, the neutral rate is sufficient for the Fed in gauging the policy rates. Authorities see the present policy rates have to continue its accommodative monetary policies while inflation is still under composure.   


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PostSubject: Economic News   Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:28 am
PBOC’s Lent 105.5 B Yuan in Rollover of MLF Due in March


The People's’ Bank of China lent 105.5 billion yuan or $16.67 billion to various banks on Wednesday under its medium-term lending facility for a year, according to released reports.


The new MLF loans have a similar rollover value in the 1-year batch of MLFs that are due on the same day. Adding 189.5 billion in the same tenor to be expired on March 16.


Moreover, the central bank added that they will avoid reverse repos on Wednesday morning.


On December 14 last year, the PBOC augmented their interest rates on liquidity tools to 3.25 percent, as well as, the one-year MLF.

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PostSubject: Economic News   Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:23 pm
The Release of Government's EU Exit Analysis


The EU free trade agreements still expected to cost the UK by 4.8 percent of its projected economic growth for the next 15 years, based on the confidential government ‘EU exit analysis’ released yesterday. The decline in growth amounted to £55 billion of the British government debt by 2033, which could further negate the expected ‘Brexit dividend’ by the supporters of the EU exit. The report was issued by the department of Exiting the EU committee. Moreover, Brexit Secretary David Davis stated that the published document should be kept confidential but some parts of the material were already leaked to the media last month.


The alternative option led by Theresa May’s team is the “Membership of the single market” but was ruled out due to the possible drop in GDP by 1.6 percent. On one hand, the ‘no deal’ Brexit would return the UK trading with the EU-27 under the standards of the World Trade Organisation and would cost 7.7 percent of the GDP based on the government numbers. This could result in a surge of government borrowing by £20 billion and £80 billion, respectively. With this, there are assumptions that approximately 40,000 to 90,000 EU migrants are planning to leave the United Kingdom.


Included in the analysis is the projected economic benefits from the reducing regulations. The government of Britain would likely create its original version of impact assessment, however, some of the think tanks are expected to see potential gains around zero and 2 percent only of the GDP. Nevertheless, the report does not mainly evaluate the short-term economic effect of Brexit.


It further shows that the free trade deal with the United States would benefit the UK GDP by 0.2 percent in the longer term. While another concession with countries under the trans-Pacific and south-east Asia regional group such as Australia, China, India and New Zealand is expected to add 0.1 to 0.4 percent of GDP. Ministers of Britain are hoping to start the talks prior to the Brexit scheduled in March 2019, but this plan seems to be already abandoned.


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PostSubject: Economic News   Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:47 pm
UK Economy Lag Behind Other G20 Countries


According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the British economy is expected to grow at a gradual pace compared with other major advanced or emerging countries. Prior the publication of the Spring Statement, the Paris-based organization revised upwards its economic outlook for Britain by 1.3% this year along with the strong global recovery. The forecast is higher than the initial estimate of 1.2% but remains to be the weakest in the Group of Twenty (G-20).


The OECD projected that the most rapid growth from 2011 was led by US tax reductions and German expenditure. The think tank stated that the world economy stayed on course to boost its annual momentum to 3.9% in the next couple of years. The figure is relatively higher than the recent forecast in November 2018 of 3.7% and 3.6% in 2019. However, there are warnings that the recovery risk may subside due to the expansion of trade barriers and could further affect the growth and jobs. The OECD mentioned that increased in UK inflation would continue to squeeze the household income. Also, the sluggish business investment could affect growth for the following years until 2020 due to risks caused by the Brexit talks.


The forecast for UK economic growth in 2019 was left unchanged at 1.1%, which recorded to be the slowest progress next to Japan. Economists predicted that the British economy will grow by 1.5% on an annual basis, while Chancellor Philip Hammond is expected to issue an optimistic outlook of the revised official forecasts on Tuesday.

Overall, the latest projection of the OECD showed that the entire G20 countries, except for Russia, will expand at a faster pace for the current year versus the November forecast.


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PostSubject: Economic News   Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:24 pm
British Chambers of Commerce Upgrade UK Economic Outlook


The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) lifted its forecast for the UK economic growth, however, showed warning that UK will be the worst performing economy among other G7 countries in 2020. The GDP outlook of the BCC is 1.1 to 1.4 percent for this year and 1.3 to 1.5 percent in 2019.While, the initial growth forecast is 1.6 percent for 2020, as the revision was steered by the slightly stronger than anticipated consumer expenditure. Moreover, exports from Britain is predicted to remain stable amid robust global growth. On the other hand, imports could possibly resume its expansion and the net trade contribution to the country’s GDP in the short term appears to be limited, as the pound support Britain’s overall net trade position. In spite of the increases, the UK GDP is expected to remain below the historical average during the forecasting period.

The non-profit organization stated that productivity is projected to have slight improvement compared over its estimated outcome but continued to be weak restrained by the underlying issues within the country, such as skills shortages and failure in infrastructure investment. The BCC expects that inflation will pick up and start to ease in the near term since the impact of the post-Brexit toned down upon the weakening the Sterling. Furthermore, there are assumptions that the next hike in UK official interest rates will reach 0.7 percent in the second quarter of 2018, which could be followed by another rise in Q1 next year. The business body foresees that public sector borrowing in Britain will come in over £13.4bn for the next three years compared with the projection issued at the Spring Statement by the Office for Budget Responsibility last week.





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PostSubject: Economic News   Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:36 am
March Fed Rate Hike Marks an Optimistic Outlook for 2018
Full story at: https://goo.gl/b2M3WW

#economicnews #thinkbigtradeforex #forexmart





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PostSubject: Economic News   Fri May 18, 2018 7:47 am
Sluggish Q1 Growth Breaks The Longest Growth Since 1991


The largest economy cooled down sharply in the first quarter despite the onset of flu and strikes, which occurs simultaneously for the region that affecting negatively good growth rates.
The annualized growth rate of Germany slowed down to 1.2% from 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the record of the Federal Statistics Office on Tuesday. Although, a sharp slowdown is already anticipated as it did not meet expectations on the U.S. growth rate of 2.3% in the same period.


However, various factors such as the strike of flu and numerous strikes on metals and engineering sectors, which causes slow down and most of the private sectors anticipate the recovery of economic activities in the second quarter or more.


Since 1991, Germany undergoes the longest growth recorded for the fifteenth consecutive quarter, according to the Statistics office. The momentum on investment spending has overshadowed the economic growth in the first three months of the year. On the other hand, exports slid down in the fourth quarter in the previous year.


A calm activity for the first quarter due to the more sickly staff at a higher level in ten years in February in reference to the BKK association of company health-insurance funds in Germany. A recorded of 500,000 workers in the metals and electrical engineering sectors contributed to the warning strikes in the latter weeks of January and early February, as stated by the IG Metall labor union of Germany. They were able to get a solid pay deal from the members.

However, economic indicators reflect that other European economies are also affected by the cold diseases and strikes. Later this Tuesday, the European Union's statistics agency will release the eurozone gross domestic product, which measures the economic output of goods and services. An increase was seen in the first quarter with 1.7% at an annualized rate, which is less than the 2.7% growth in the last quarter of 2017.



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PostSubject: Economic News   Mon May 21, 2018 12:09 pm
NZ Retail Sales Recorded Slowest Growth in Q1


The retail sales volume in New Zealand had expanded during Jan-Mar period but also recorded its slowest rate after five years, this further indicates the possible slackening of economic growth in the following years. On an annual basis, the official data showed that retail sales volume grew by 3 percent on Monday,  which also imply a sharp decline versus the 5.4 percent rise in the previous quarter and the weakest growth from July-September 2012.


Sales gained 0.1 percent only based on a quarterly growth, which is lower than the rough estimate of 1 percent increase projected by the economists. Footwear and clothing had decreased by 5.1 percent while motor vehicles are down to 1.1 percent. The figures led to speed-bumps in the economy, whereas, many developed countries in the past years envied but it begins to deal with some headwinds due to weak immigration and expansion in the housing market.


The administration was able to secure strong economic growth because of immigration levels and stable price of dairy products at 3 percent per year despite the slight decline to 2.9 percent in 2017.


New Zealand's new Labour-led government took control in October and pledged to settle the housing crisis in the country along with some plans to improve property investment tax and officially ban foreigners to purchase residential properties in NZ. On Thursday, the expanded government investment declared in the annual budget would likely negate the sluggish consumption expenditure, with the 3.8 percent GDP growth outlook from the Treasury forecast in 2019. In addition to it, the GDP data for the first quarter is scheduled on June 21.

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PostSubject: Economic News   Thu May 24, 2018 9:16 am
EU Bloc Negotiates with Australia and New Zealand


The European bloc confirmed yesterday the start of free trade negotiations with Australia and New Zealand in order to establish new relations against the increasing trade tensions with the United States. The European Commission represents the 28 EU countries and negotiates about its plans and agreement towards the AU and NZ despite the warnings on opening the EU markets to generate farm products like beef and butter.


According to forecasts from EU, its exports towards Australia and New Zealand may expand by a third in case that trade agreements were finalized. Considering the fact that its trade partnership with the US was suspended by the presidential election victory of Donald Trump, the EU shifted its focus to build allies with open markets and struck agreements with countries on the same mind.


The bloc also deals with the result of steel and aluminum tariffs set by the US and the sanctions they would impose against Iran, which could lead to restriction of certain foreign businesses. The EU closed the deal with Japan, Mexico and Singapore and currently working with the Mercosur bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.


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PostSubject: Economic News   Tue May 29, 2018 9:21 am
PBOC Increased the 28-repo rates by 2.85 percent


The People’s Bank of China adjusted their rates higher on the 28-day reverse bond repurchase agreements to keep with the pace on previous increases in tenors for the past two months.


According to the report from the online site of the PBOC, the 28-day reverse repos raised from 2.80 percent to 2.85 percent.


This move was enacted after the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank had also raised their rates on March 21 which signifies that Beijing is keeping up with the global market trends despite all of the financial risks in their homeland.


Moreover, the central bank added 30 billion yuan into money markets, particularly on their 7-day and 28-day rates on Monday, where the seven-day was set at 2.55 percent based on their given statements.

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PostSubject: Economic News   Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:08 am
EU’s Malmström Against Trump’s Tariffs


The European Union is trying to convince the countries Canada, Japan, and Mexico to work together against the aggressive trade policies imposed by US President Donald Trump, according to European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström today.


Malmström further stated that EU is reaching out various countries to form alliances and arrange a trade union who believe in international laws. Last week, the EU announced levying retaliatory tariffs up to €2.8 billion-worth of U.S. exports, which includes peanut butter and motorboats. While Canada, India, Japan, and Mexico will do the same thing. The European Commissioner described Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum as “not legitimate” The Swedish Commissioner also cautioned regarding the potential risk towards the global economy.


Both the United States and Europe set up the international policy and organizations to govern trade, but the US broke the rules that is why the EU has to take necessary action, Malmström said.


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PostSubject: Economic News   Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:32 am
SNB Keeps an Ultra Loose Monetary Policies


The Swiss National Bank announced the decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and analysts expectations matched from the survey by Reuters giving a unanimous answer.


They reiterated the fragility or exchange rates after the strengthening of the Swiss franc in the past few weeks and began low this year.


At the same time, Chairman Thomas Jordan said that it would be too early to raise rates in Switzerland amid low inflation.


Another issue is the political uncertainty in Italy which will affect the eurozone in the future and it is important for the central bank to be heedful in this situation, according to an analyst.
Forty experts expect the SNB to maintain the target range to be 1.25 percent to minus 0.25 percent in three months on the offered rate of London Interbank, which has been the ongoing target for the past three-and-a-half years.


Also, they expect a negative interest rate of 0.75 percent deposits to be sustained where the commercial bank held a certain value as one of the important tools used by the bank.


Changes in the LIBOR target range is anticipated to happen soonest at the end of the year based on the UBS, while the median consensus deems to set at the end of next year.


Analyst of Credit Suisse initially thought the central bank to raise their rates as early as 2019 based on the economic strength of Switzerland, with a forecast growth of 2.2 percent this year.


The Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe said, “Our base case scenario is where the ECB is considering a first interest rate increase themselves by mid-2019, and the SNB could move a quarter before.” Connoting the reaffirmation of central bank’s decision.  However, she added that these two would move together as they are ‘economically interlinked’.


Her expectation is a gradual increase of rates until it reached around 1.20 against the euro in a year.

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PostSubject: Economic News   Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:46 am
France’s Economic Growth Sharp Decline in 2018


The economy of France dropped from 2.3 percent to 1.7 percent this year, according to the forecast of National statistics, which is another financial problem of President Emmanuel Macron in reducing costs of the government.


Macron’s administration aims to reduce spending and maintain the deficit targets of the European Union with 2.0 percent target growth for 2018.


Growth has been steady and there are no particular concerns, remarked by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Monday.


However, statistics agency through that the government would fail to meet the target as it would be pulled lower by a strong euro and increasing oil prices as some of the influential factors.


Gross Domestic Product increased by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, higher than the previous quarter’s rate of 0.2 percent. Further increased by 0.4 percent in both the remaining two factors in twelve months with  1.7 percent.


The Central bank of France revised lower their target growth of 1.8 percent in a year, following a bright year in 2017. It has changed as if covered by clouds in France and the eurozone as described by the head of Insee's economic outlook division Frederic Tallet.


This includes external factors over which the nation has less control such as global trade war, higher costs of oil prices, a strong euro, as well as, political uncertainties in Europe, notwithstanding the new far right-eurosceptic coalition in power in Italy.


Moreover, domestic concerns including sluggish household consumption and nearly three months of unabating train strikes that will likely bring down the second-quarter growth by 0.1 percentage points.


The forecast says that the corporate investment will slow down from 4.4 percent to 3.1 percent over the year, while household investment would decline from 5.6 percent in 2017 to 1.6 percent.


On a brighter side, good progress was seen on the trade and unemployment concerns. Unemployment will only decline slightly which is currently twice the value of Germany or Britain. The forecast rate is 8.8 percent at the end of the year from 9.0 9.0 percent at the end of last year.


A slow start of exports in 2018 is expected to change in the second quarter with the help of large demand in the aviation and shipbuilding sectors, according to the agency. On the other hand, households will gain from the reduction in both of the residency and payroll taxes.

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PostSubject: Re: ForexMart's Forex News   Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:00 pm
India Becomes 6th Largest Economy and Beat France



The World Bank issued the updated economic figures for previous year which showed that India held the sixth rank for the world’s largest economy and pushed France lower into the seventh spot. The gross domestic product (GDP) of India reached $2.597 trillion at the end of 2017 while France’s GDP amounted to  $2.582 trillion.

The Indian economy had a strong rebound since July last year following the declines in the past quarters due to economic policies imposed by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration. There are about 1.34 billion Indian citizens which would likely make India the world’s highest population against 67 million French inhabitants. This explains that India’s per capita GDP remains a portion of France which is approximately 20 times higher according to the World Bank.

The consumer and manufacturing expenditure served as the main drivers for India’s economy in 2017 after Modi’s demonetization program of large banknotes way back in 2016 as well as the unorganized new tax system of the country.

India was able to double its GDP in a span of a decade and anticipated to power ahead as Asia’s economic engine as China wind down. The International Monetary Fund stated that India is predicted to grow by 7.4 percent in the current year and 7.8 percent in 2019, supported by tax reform and household spending. This was compared to the world’s forecast average expansion of 3.9 percent.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research mentioned that India would likely beat the GDP of France and the United Kingdom at the end of 2017. The London-based consultancy further told that there is a modest chance for the Indian economy hit the third place for the world’s largest economy by 2032.

Last year, Britain was regarded to be the fifth biggest economy in the world with a GDP worth $2.622 trillion. Meanwhile, the United States hailed as the number one economy followed by China, Japan, and Germany.
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PostSubject: Re: ForexMart's Forex News   Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:47 am
Irish Economy to Reach Highest Growth in 2018



The economy of Ireland is projected to reach its highest record in 2018 based on the latest outlook of the European Commission. Ireland’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to expand by 5.6 percent this year and 4 percent in 2018, supported mainly by domestic demand.

Meanwhile, the estimate of the EU executive shows that eurozone GDP has the potential to increase by 2.1 percent, which is below the 2.3 percent forecast according to its May report. 

Since Ireland is a very open economy, the country is potential to have revisions in the international taxation and trade environment. While the activities of multinational corporations could affect the headline GDP growth. In the near term, the commission expects that the domestic economic activity could possibly grow at a strong momentum.

In general, the commission reduced its predictions for the EU economic growth for this year because of trade adjustments due to increasing oil prices and tensions with the United States which drove the EU inflation higher.
There is an optimistic outlook for the whole year despite better trade with the United States. Forecasts were mostly taken prior to the United States raising their stakes through 10 percent tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, announced on Tuesday. 

The worsening trade war has added uncertainty on the outlook that also affected the Chinese financial markets in the past few weeks. 

With sluggish credit expansion and domestic demand ranging from government-funded infrastructure investment to consumer spending, China’s economy seems to be showing signs of struggle and weakening. 

The huge export sector may add impact on tariffs with the U.S. giving 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports on Friday, which then triggered Beijing for rapid retaliatory measures on the same amount of U.S. Chinese exports to China. 

Moreover, the uncertainty caused by trade war pushed the corporate borrowing costs higher in reaction to soften the economic effect of a multi-year easing on riskier lending. More cash were accumulated through lesser reserve requirements for lenders three times this year.
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PostSubject: Re: ForexMart's Forex News   Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:31 am
Drop in Inflation Rate of Malaysia



The Annual inflation rate of Malaysia declined to 1.3 percent in June from 1.8 percent the month earlier due to the withdrawal of a goods and services tax based on the poll by Reuters. 

A survey of ten analysts by Reuters forecast for June ranged from 0.6 percent to 1.9 percent. The central bank of Malaysia kept the interest rates at 3.25 percent at a policy meeting on July 11 despite sluggish inflation and steady growth. 

The new government by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad starting May 9 general election abolished the consumption tax of 6 percent on June 1, which was implemented for three years. 

According to economists, the elimination of goods and services tax affect the inflation and pushed it lower in June,  despite the higher cost of transportation and food during the month of fasting in Ramadan and subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations.
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PostSubject: Re: ForexMart's Forex News   Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:53 pm
South Korea to Unite with Asean and India



The 1950-53 Korean War ended under the Presidency of South Korean leader Moon Jae-in and successfully settled regional programs for economic, political, security, social and cultural. While the previous presidents including  Kim Dae-Jung, Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-Hye attempted to fix similar issues but failed to do so. 

Whenever the country’s leaders turned their attention to Southeast and South Asia, problems will always come up within the Northeast especially in the Korean Peninsula, which causes immediate distraction and inconsistency.

However, President Moon tried a new method instead of using the same strategy, he positioned South Korea within the ongoing alliance with the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Moon travels within and outside the country and promised to take a visit on Asean nations on the first two years of his leadership.
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