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 Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Obasi FXMart
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:57 pm
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 24, 2018 

 

The sterling pound prevails over the market on Thursday, while the trading seems difficult because the 1.29 region became slightly resistive. The price action amid the day only emphasized the current volatility that the GBP/USD pair has. In general, the British currency would likely be a huge investment in the longer-term but the nearing end of the Brexit caused further confusion than clarity. Nevertheless, there are rumors that the longer-term profit will begin to jump into the GBP or even try to win over the optimistic news.

This market could probably decline to the 1.2750 region prior seeing some major support. We can see some type of support at the 1.2825 zone but it may take some time before testing such levels. There are forecasts that the sterling could possibly break out to the upside upon gaining some clarity. However, considering the current scenario, it is recommended to deal with some volatility and choppiness.

Traders should not also forget to pay attention to the current and overall status of the US dollar because this is highly expected to reflect on this market. As of this moment, the majority are concerned with global trade which placed some demand in American currency.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:01 pm
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 28, 2018 

 

The sterling pound had a significant rally earlier this week. It further breaks above the 1.2850 region and would probably test the 1.29 zone. A move higher near the 1.30 mark is possible but it might be very choppy throughout the process. Buying in the dips can be reliable except when negative factors or general headlines were released from the UK. It seems that the British currency is undervalued by which different kinds of investment will attempt to arrange a deal with the European Union.

Upon having an arrangement, the pound will breakout in value because we can find some certainty in the market. Continuing to buy the dips is not ruled out yet and the 1.2750 mark is expected to the “floor” in the market but it might reverse the whole thing eventually. Market players should anticipate volatile sessions as large money flows in an out. At this moment, there is a higher risk to the move upside rather than down. Moreover, traders might need to deal with occasional pull back and negativity in the market.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:38 am
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 29, 2018 

 

The single European currency broke on top of the 1.17 mark which indicates being active again. It seems that the overall market sentiment will keep on improving, which would likely support the euro or negatively affect the US currency because traders are expected to overcome the risk appetite curve to other markets and currencies.

The current situation shows the possible testing of the previous highs at the zone 1.18 that serves as the ceiling of the consolidation. A break above that region will pave the way towards a higher level, as the initial target highlighted the 1.20 level. 

In case that players will pull back, plenty of support levels below are predicted to keep this market buoyed. We can find support at the levels 1.1650, 1.16 and 1.15, which is expected to be the “floor” of the market. It is suggested to continue buying the dips to play with this market, while traders may become more assertive above the 1.20 region.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:24 pm
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 30, 2018 

 

The sterling pound moved back and forth in the past few days and it is expected that the situation will remain unchanged, as the Brexit will continue to bring uncertainty to the British pound. Nevertheless, there is plenty of support in the past and it is predicted to keep going since there are only a few traders who opt to sell the British currency. 

In the next couple of months, the Brexit agreement will be finalized which means that we’ll be seeing some certainty. With this, there are more players who would want to buy the pound. Moreover, the “smart-money” would likely get into the GBP to help the money on work since there is a lot of value in the longer-term charts.

As of this writing, the 1.28 region is projected to provide support with the possibility to go even lower. While the 1.2750 region appears to be more supportive and it may take some time before buyers return the market. The major target for resistance is the 1.30 region, which appears really attractive to traders. Considering the entire scenario, we need some optimistic news about the global commerce, about the United Kingdom or anything that could help push the market upwards to drive away traders from the greenbacks.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:57 am
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 31, 2018 

 

The euro/dollar currency pair pulled back during the first half of trading yesterday, however, find some support around the 1.1650 region as well as in the level of 1.16. As of this writing, the market is expected to rally for some time since the trade deal will be signed in North America and may show a “risk on” sentiment in the market generally. On the other hand, Turkey’s issue was reduced in priority since people do not really fear about it, and this further helped the single European currency to have some “relief rally”.

The market became uptight lately, but there is a tendency to move above the 1.18 zone, which is the top of a significant consolidation region. A break on top of that area or near the 1.1850 would likely help the Euro to reach above the 1.20 mark, an area that is expected to be attractive since it appears important on the longer-term charts.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:52 pm
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 4, 2018 

 

The sterling pound breaks lower amid trading course on Monday as the week started, and showed further concern about the Brexit’s progress. Such headlines will keep moving this market immoderately and a break down under the 1.2850 region will push the British currency towards 1.28 zone eventually, which was a very supportive level in the past. Below that zone is the 1.2750 mark which is a crucial area in the longer-term charts.

It is expected that the market will have a reversal and indicate signs of support which will open doors to pick up value since the pound was oversold for a long period of time. Nevertheless, we need some optimistic news as the Brexit continue to drive this market higher. Ultimately, we can find some resolution but at this moment, we might encounter a lot of repulsive volatility brought by such news.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:40 pm
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 5, 2018 

 

The single European currency had broken down during Tuesday’s trading course and will further move downwards near the 1.1550 zone. However, there are speculations about the possible skepticism that might influence this market, so traders should be careful when they opt to put a lot of money to work. A break down under the 1.15 region would likely impose aggressiveness and on the other side, we can experience volatility.

Market participants should focus on the greenbacks in general, as well as issues from all over the globe. As long as there are issues that fear out the public, the favor will still be on the American currency. The US dollar will continue to edge higher and the value of the euro will be drag lower, and such events that are driven by news should be focused for now.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:46 pm
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 6, 2018 

 

The British currency has broken to the upside in response to the statement from Germany and the United Kingdom about their weakening stance towards hardline issues of Brexit. With this, we can expect that Brexit will happen sooner or later. Nevertheless, this move was seen last week and players should be very cautious in getting into this market. Hence, there are a lot of retail traders who would likely bet their full account for this move. Unfortunately, they will be extremely be mistaken about this, because prior to any confirmation, it is possible that a statement will be issued to reverse this downwards.

On the other hand, there is a potential change in the trend of the sterling pound that has high possibility to come upon breaking above the descending trendline around 1.3033 region. This could be a tricky candle to use in trading and the best possible way to trade this is by purchasing short-term dips.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:32 pm
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 7, 2018 

 

The sterling pound slightly rallied amid the day on Thursday, however, it reverted as the Americans came into play. It seems that the markets know how to take a lot of risks since the jobs figure would likely break this market. Aside from that, the issue of softening stance between the Germans and the British regarding the talks has been turned down by the Germans. The market closed at the same level of the gap and it appears to provide resistance earlier this week. Eventually, there is possible for a downwards movement in the near term but we can see a significant support around the 1.29 region. Moreover, there are also forecasts that states the potential significant amount of uncertainty in the market. With this, the market may edged lower just like what happened in the previous week.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:19 pm
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 10, 2018 

 

The pound/dollar remained unchanged above the level of 1.2900 as the Cable pair broke up around the technical handle since last week and stimulate hope for the approval of Brexit deal would likely oppose Monday’s GDP outlook for the British economy.  Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier plans to get a new order from the EU leaders in Brussels, and this move indicates that the European Union will deal with Britain amid the major issues and despite the delayed negotiation process.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:09 pm
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 11, 2018 

 

Yesterday, the euro rallied, reaching the level of 1.16 in the US session. Hereinafter, we can find a drive for this pair to rise higher. There is a chance for the pair to move towards the level of 1.1650 and then to 1.17. We should also take into consideration that there are other contributing factors and the greenback could climb higher which will turn around this pair. 

Although, the level of 1.15 seems a very strong support and it is likely for this level to be sustained for a while. Hence, it is suggested to buy the pair on dips and we can expect for “risk on” trading for this pair in short-term. It is also a positive thing for commodities since the greenback has a large influence on it. The market is attempting to take a hold on this pair that could result in a lot of choppiness especially since there is a lot of traders returning from the holidays. Yet, there is a chance for the buyers to come in strong.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:53 pm
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 12, 2018 

 

The British pound had a lot of noise during the Tuesday session. It broke higher than the trend line which is a positive thing but any statement from EU would put it to stop. The trading strategy continues as EU official is saying for the British to be careful not to overstep prior to the Irish official stating that it would only won’t be too long. Meanwhile, the currency market is getting a mixed reaction while the media influence the rationale on this aspect. 

It seems that there is a chance for a breakout but we must remain patient. Hence, I think that we can find a lot of value in buying on dips given the past low price and in case some form of resolution, this would be good for the pair. Other than that, if we reach a fresh new high, this would drive the pair. Nonetheless, at this point, no deal would also still bring uncertainty to the pair and some value hunters will probably enter later on. I may not look for selling the pair given the situation but opportunities may open to purchase the pair in pullbacks.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:35 am
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2018 

A lot of noise exhibited in yesterday’s session of the EUR/USD pair and bounced around the level of 1.16. Hereinafter, trading activity will mainly depend on the US dollar. Traders should look out for the new to be released from the European Union as this would have an impact to the reaction with Brexit which is the main concern on the euro. Besides that, there will also be noise in the emerging market that could either push the US dollar rate higher or lower depending on the trading for today. Hence, there is a lot of factors we should weigh-in trading this pair. 

Analyzing the long-term charts, the price will probably range between 1.15 and 1.18. Overall, noise is expected but eventually, the direction will somehow be decided later on. For now, it is suggested to buy in short-term pullbacks as the trend is close to the bottom of the bigger consolidation than above. A lot of changes may happen, nonetheless, noise is likely to persist. Hence, traders should aim for long-term trades rather than short-term since there is not enough momentum to break through in the general range yet.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:28 pm
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 14, 2018 


The euro major pair was strongly bid yesterday after the positive turnout since April 25, given positive forecast on inflation. This strengthened the bullish trend of the pair. The falling wedge was broken as well as the rising 5-day and 10-day moving average (MAs).

Recently, the price is at 1.1694, increased by 0.04% on the day. Hence, we can say that there is less resistance on the upper channel unless the bullish trend doesn’t go well with the widening US-Germany (DE) yield differential. The two-year yield spread grew by 331 basis points today. 

Nonetheless, if the US data had expected USD to gain upper hand against the euro before the market closes on Friday which is very low as this will slow down investors anticipations for future Fed rate hikes. On the other hand, a strong forecast demand could strengthen the economy from external shocks and place the bid lower than the greenback. The risk sentiment has become subdued after Trump’s remark saying the no pressure trade deal with China despite the positive risk disposition amid trade talks with China.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:42 pm
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 18, 2018 

 

The euro rallied during the Monday session and almost reaching the level of 1.17 where there is also a lot of selling last week. Overall, the market is likely to have a lot of noise there is a tendency for the price to go up. However, we should take note that consolidation will probably resume in long-term with the target to be at 1.18. Below it, there is support found at 1.15 but it is yet to be known if this can be broken soon. Ultimately, there may be a lot of noise and we can yet to determine if we can gather enough momentum to get this going in long-term. 

There is a lot of factors to weigh in right now, especially since the ECB is in a dovish sentiment. At the same time, we have to consider debt of the emerging market with the European banks. Hence, there is a lot of various things the makes it difficult for the market to find their way in one direction or more. It is likely for short-term trading to keep on trading this pair alive, hence, trader should take consideration in trading large psychologically important figures. 

If the pair can break higher than 1.18, the market will probably reach the level of 1.20 or more, where there is a lot of resistance expected. I would look forward to the upside movement in long-term, but not yet as of this writing.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:09 pm
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 19, 2018 

 

The euro rallied at the beginning of the trading session but markets sided to the US dollar as soon China retaliated to tariffs imposition causing them to jump to the Treasury market. The downtrend line was being tested influencing trading more that make add some difficulty overall. Looking at the hourly chart, there is likely to add more pressure in this area which is already expected. There are chances for equity traders to not give attention to trade tariffs but it may cause the market to get scared in the latter time. 

On the other hand, the price could break higher than 1.1725 which give a very bullish sentiment. The move will probably reach until 1.1750 and further to 1.18 which happens to be at the top of consolidation. It probably needs more push, more than a short-term pullback but it is likely to happen. If it breaks lower than 1.1660, it could reach as low as 1.1625 with a lot of choppiness and overall difficulty of the pair amid the problems in trade war although it is not likely good in the European Union either.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:56 pm
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 20, 2018 


 


The euro major pair is directed northward within the range previously, but it is being hindered around the level of 1.17. Currently, the price is at 1.1679 with an increase of 0.05% on the day and it is necessary to surpass the level of 1.1700 to keep the present price action with bulls dominating the trend.


Trading during the Asian market shows a neutral stance with both sides trying to take lead. If the market fails to reach the are of 1.17, it will lead to an increase of Treasury yields and bigger spread for amid the widening two-year yields of US-DE (German). The 10-year treasury yield is now traded at 3.06% after achieving a  two-month high of 3.10% on Wednesday. On the other hand, the two-year US-DE (German) yield spread has gained 333 basis points, which has been the highest rate since 1989. Investors are currently returning to undervalued assets that were assertively sold, as well as Aussie and kiwi dollars since there is a risk appetite and no apparent economic slowdown despite ongoing trade war that could be favorable for the common currency.


On a technical perspective, the support for this pair is found at 1.1650 and rebound which holds in a consolidation range and moves sideways for short-term. A breakout at 1.1650 could shift the short-term trend southward and expecting to meet the support levels below at 1.1625-1.1600. If the market is able to hold the level higher than 1.1650, the price level of 1.1720 could be tested again. Moving further, breaking the next medium-term resistance of 1.1745/50, it could open more profits in the future.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Tue Sep 25, 2018 3:34 pm
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 25, 2018 

 

The US dollar has a mixed sentiment during the North American hours after the recent update of Draghi on the EU parliament giving a transitory hawkish decision which pushed the pair down to 1.18, implying recovery of the market from the “underlying inflation” amid progressive labor market and some signals of shortages. Hence, this supports the ECB anticipations of higher wages. The price of the euro rose to a three-month high of 1.1815 from 1.1750 on Draghi’s speech. However, a few hours after that, the ECB chief undermined his own bullish rhetorics on inflation, adding more potential outcomes on protectionism, Perhaps, this can be because of recent fiscal plans in Italy prior to the FOMC later on. The major euro pair was affected by increasing Treasury yields and large outside day Doji candle on  Monday. 

On the technical aspect, the pair did not succeed again in maintaining the level above 1.1800 and close higher than 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in the range of 1.2556-1.1301. The decline implies there is not enough momentum. An appropriate breakdown lower than the support of 1.1725, which was previously a resistance, that could lead to a further decline below 1.1700 and help the strengthen the expectations. Meanwhile, the level of 1.1780 has strengthened and followed to 1.1800. If the price maintained higher than the boundary, the price is likely to extend the growth towards the June monthly-high resistance around the middle of 1.1800.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:06 pm
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 26, 2018 

 

The euro attempted for a rally higher than the level of 1.18 for some time but doesn’t succeed, which can be because of the upcoming FOMC statement. Traders are uncertain whether to place money on this situation. It is likely for the dollar to become the focal point in the next few days. Other than that, there is also the issue of Italy with the European Union. Hence, there is a chance for a breakout at the level of 1.18 and further towards 1.20, which is the initial target as it is an important level, as well as, in the past. 

In case of a pullback, there may be a chance for the bullish traders to enter at a cheaper price as the level of 1.1725 is a little supportive. Nevertheless, the pair will probably break higher but needs some kind of a momentum if the decision of the FOMC becomes less hawkish than the forecast. Although this is just a probability, this event will largely affect the US dollar. Traders are trying to overlook the global trade fears, traders will still be able to bid on this pair.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:57 pm
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 27, 2018 

 

The euro major pair decline towards 1.1725 prior to the expected FOMC statement. Sad to say, we really can’t tell the future movement since most traders are waiting on the sidelines. Trading on news activity has already passed, especially on the retail side. However, traders can make its decision for long-term after the announcement. It will probably go beyond the level of 1.18 or not at the end of the session. If so, a breakout is possible and reach the level of 1.20 or higher. 

If the price breaks lower than 1.17, there is a chance for a further decline of 1.15. A lot of volatility is also anticipated in long-term and a chance for a breakout if given sufficient time. However, it doesn’t mean it will not be difficult and a chance that the price can stay within the consolidation area for long-term. Recently, there are some hindrances in the bullish pressure but eventually, the outcome will likely be a breakout. This propels the price towards the next level of 1.0, which was important previously.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:49 pm
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 28, 2018 

 

The euro against the US dollar resumes its bearish trend during the North American session, losing almost 100 pips as the day closed as low as 1.1633 despite minimal activity in the night of market hours. After the macroeconomic report from the US, the US demand surged, which is gaining momentum against the rival currencies since Wednesday of FOMC announcement and largely influenced USD denominated currency pairs. The real-GDP growth in the U.S. for the second quarter remains the same at 4.2% and durable goods orders rose by 4.5% in August after the decline of 1.2% in July. The price resumed going down lower than 1.165 in the first few hours of Asian trading. Which then sustain the price range-bound. 

Although, the recent announcement did not do much from the recovery of losses. Consequently, this could boost the spread between the 10-year Italian government bond yield and its German equivalent, which will further strengthen the bearish trend. Moreover, if the yield spread rises as expected, the market will less likely focus on the preliminary Eurozone CPI to be published at 9.00 GMT. Another to expect, the US markets can anticipate the data on the core of PCE price index, which is the main measurement of inflation. Yet, recently, the support at 1.1640 is critically tested. A strong breakdown at the said level, the pair could extend its losses to  1.1570-1.1500 while a short-term resistance can be found at 1.1665, 1.1755 and 1.1815 price levels.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:21 pm
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 1, 2018 

 

For the past few weeks, the US dollar has further risen as profits are gained during the first half of the year. Although, investors who have been closely monitoring the market, this did not come in surprising for them and they know that this relies on their hands. However, the decline of the EUR/USD pair has been strongly resistive or has been moving everywhere in the past few months. 

However, instead of a quick decline, a slow drop is apparent in the trend and it looks like the euro can be able to sustain trading higher than 1.10 and continues to reach higher. The level of 1.15 to 1.16 will become a significant level on the daily chart and starting a large head and shoulder within the area where the rate was on August 15. This shows that there is a chance for a bullish momentum to establish as the end on the year approaches as long as the shoulders proceed to sustain this trend. 

On the headline, there is nothing to expect much for the greenback in the coming days since there were already laid out in the market and the dollar has already established its rates in relation to trade wars. At the same time, the Fed raised their rates as to how the market expected it. Hence, the market is expecting largely of it and failing not to meet will just otherwise being a disappointment to the market. However, it might not be long for the trend to be reversed and provide chances for the bulls to return because of the headlines.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:04 pm
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 2, 2018 

 

The euro declined in the past few days while maintaining the trading range during the Monday session. A lot of support is offered below and the level of 1.15 offers some but right now, there is not much of a momentum. 

After a breakdown for the past days, it is logical and it needs some break as it moves around the level of 1.16. The market will try to gain some momentum but it will not be surprising for the price to go lower before finding a lot of buying pressure, especially close to the level of 1.15 which was massively supportive in the past few months. The price shifting between 1.15 and 1.18, despite of a breakdown, there is no significant change over it. 

A massive support level is apparent just below the level of 1.15 on the weekly long-term charts and needed a strong breakdown to pass through, which will likely limit the current downtrend. As of now, I am aiming to buy the pair but at a much lower area if the trend allows. On the contrary, in case it breaks higher than 1.1650, the price could return to the level of 1.18.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:25 pm
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 3, 2018 


 


The euro declined in the past few days while maintaining the trading range during the Monday session. A lot of support is offered below and the level of 1.15 offers some but right now, there is not much of a momentum.


After a breakdown for the past days, it is logical and it needs some break as it moves around the level of 1.16. The market will try to gain some momentum but it will not be surprising for the price to go lower before finding a lot of buying pressure, especially close to the level of 1.15 which was massively supportive in the past few months. The price shifting between 1.15 and 1.18, despite a breakdown, there is no significant change over it.


A massive support level is apparent just below the level of 1.15 on the weekly long-term charts and needed a strong breakdown to pass through, which will likely limit the current downtrend. As of now, I am aiming to buy the pair but at a much lower area if the trend allows. On the contrary, in case it breaks higher than 1.1650, the price could return to the level of 1.18.  
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart   Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:31 pm
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2018 

 

The euro rallied at the beginning of Wednesday session after the news announcement of Italy having less than 2% budget deficit by 2021. It has eased the tension between Italy in the European Union for quite a bit and being optimism in the market. Yet, if volatility continues in the pair, we should focus on various movements at the same time. The Federal Reserve is aiming to raise the interest rate for different time in more than a year or so which will have an impact to this pair. Nonetheless, the level of 1.15 offers to be significant and it will not be surprising for this price to be important after some time. 

There is a lot of consolidation in the past few months and the trend is expected to move back and forth making the euro at a lower price. However, it does not show that the price would not decline but this implies a lot of value hunting in the pair. Traders should look into the formation of the lower price unless the price moves above the low from the previous trading session, it shows the price to form a new trend on the upside and probably move towards 1.18 as it has in the past.
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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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